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ResearchPaper
2020
Divergence in labour force growth : should wages and prices grow faster in Germany?
Divergence in labour force growth : should wages and prices grow faster in Germany?
Abstract (English)
We develop a model which shows that wages, prices and real income should grow faster in countries with low increase in their labour force. If not, other countries experience growing unemployment and/or trade deficit. This result is applied to the case of Germany, which has displayed a significantly lower increase in its labour force than its trade partners, except in the moment of the reunification. By assuming that goods are differentiated according to their country of origin (Armington’s hypothesis), a low growth of the working population constrains the production of German goods, which entails an increase in their prices and in German wages. This mechanism is magnified by the low price elasticity of the demand for German goods.Hence,the German policy of wage moderation could severely constrain other countries’ policy options. The simulations of an extended model which encompasses offshoring to emerging countries and labour market imperfections suggest that (i) the impact of differences in labour force growth upon unemployment in Eurozone countries has been significant and (ii) the German demographic shock following unification could explain a large part of the 1995-2005 German economic turmoil.
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Notes
Publication license
Publication series
Hohenheim discussion papers in business, economics and social sciences; 2020,09
Published in
Faculty
Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences
Institute
Institute of Economics
Examination date
Supervisor
Edition / version
Citation
Identification
DOI
ISSN
ISBN
Language
English
Publisher
Publisher place
Classification (DDC)
330 Economics
Original object
Free keywords
Population growth Labour force Wages Germany
Standardized keywords (GND)
Inflation Lohn Beschäftigungstheorie
Sustainable Development Goals
BibTeX
@techreport{Marczak2020,
url = {https://hohpublica.uni-hohenheim.de/handle/123456789/6545},
author = {Marczak, Martyna and Hellier, Joël and Beißinger, Thomas et al.},
title = {Divergence in labour force growth : should wages and prices grow faster in Germany?},
year = {2020},
school = {Universität Hohenheim},
series = {Hohenheim discussion papers in business, economics and social sciences},
}