A new version of this entry is available:
Loading...
Article
2023
Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland
Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland
Abstract (English)
The management of climate-resilient grassland systems is important for stable livestock fodder production. In the face of climate change, maintaining productivity while minimizing yield variance of grassland systems is increasingly challenging. To achieve climate-resilient and stable productivity of grasslands, a better understanding of the climatic drivers of long-term trends in yield variance and its dependence on agronomic inputs is required. Based on the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted (UK), we report for the first time the long-term trends in yield variance of grassland (1965–2018) in plots given different fertilizer and lime applications, with contrasting productivity and plant species diversity. We implemented a statistical model that allowed yield variance to be determined independently of yield level. Environmental abiotic covariates were included in a novel criss-cross regression approach to determine climatic drivers of yield variance and its dependence on agronomic management. Our findings highlight that sufficient liming and moderate fertilization can reduce yield variance while maintaining productivity and limiting loss of plant species diversity. Plots receiving the highest rate of nitrogen fertilizer or farmyard manure had the highest yield but were also more responsive to environmental variability and had less plant species diversity. We identified the days of water stress from March to October and temperature from July to August as the two main climatic drivers, explaining approximately one-third of the observed yield variance. These drivers helped explain consistent unimodal trends in yield variance—with a peak in approximately 1995, after which variance declined. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel statistical framework and a unique long-term dataset for understanding the trends in yield variance of managed grassland. The application of the criss-cross regression approach in other long-term agro-ecological trials could help identify climatic drivers of production risk and to derive agronomic strategies for improving the climate resilience of cropping systems.
File is subject to an embargo until
This is a correction to:
A correction to this entry is available:
This is a new version of:
Notes
Publication license
Publication series
Published in
Agronomy for sustainable development, 43 (2023), 3.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w.
ISSN: 1773-0155
Faculty
Institute
Examination date
Supervisor
Edition / version
Citation
DOI
ISSN
ISBN
Language
English
Publisher
Publisher place
Classification (DDC)
630 Agriculture
Collections
Original object
Standardized keywords (GND)
Sustainable Development Goals
BibTeX
@article{Macholdt2023-04-26,
doi = {10.1007/s13593-023-00885-w},
author = {Macholdt, Janna and Hadasch, Steffen and Macdonald, Andrew et al.},
title = {Long-term trends in yield variance of temperate managed grassland},
journal = {Agronomy for Sustainable Development},
year = {2023-04-26},
volume = {43},
number = {3},
}