Browsing by Subject "Variability"

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Proposal and extensive test of a calibration protocol for crop phenology models
(2023) Wallach, Daniel; Palosuo, Taru; Thorburn, Peter; Mielenz, Henrike; Buis, Samuel; Hochman, Zvi; Gourdain, Emmanuelle; Andrianasolo, Fety; Dumont, Benjamin; Ferrise, Roberto; Gaiser, Thomas; Garcia, Cecile; Gayler, Sebastian; Harrison, Matthew; Hiremath, Santosh; Horan, Heidi; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Jansson, Per-Erik; Jing, Qi; Justes, Eric; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Launay, Marie; Lewan, Elisabet; Liu, Ke; Mequanint, Fasil; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Padovan, Gloria; Qian, Budong; Schütze, Niels; Seserman, Diana-Maria; Shelia, Vakhtang; Souissi, Amir; Specka, Xenia; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Trombi, Giacomo; Weber, Tobias K. D.; Weihermüller, Lutz; Wöhling, Thomas; Seidel, Sabine J.
A major effect of environment on crops is through crop phenology, and therefore, the capacity to predict phenology for new environments is important. Mechanistic crop models are a major tool for such predictions, but calibration of crop phenology models is difficult and there is no consensus on the best approach. We propose an original, detailed approach for calibration of such models, which we refer to as a calibration protocol. The protocol covers all the steps in the calibration workflow, namely choice of default parameter values, choice of objective function, choice of parameters to estimate from the data, calculation of optimal parameter values, and diagnostics. The major innovation is in the choice of which parameters to estimate from the data, which combines expert knowledge and data-based model selection. First, almost additive parameters are identified and estimated. This should make bias (average difference between observed and simulated values) nearly zero. These are “obligatory” parameters, that will definitely be estimated. Then candidate parameters are identified, which are parameters likely to explain the remaining discrepancies between simulated and observed values. A candidate is only added to the list of parameters to estimate if it leads to a reduction in BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), which is a model selection criterion. A second original aspect of the protocol is the specification of documentation for each stage of the protocol. The protocol was applied by 19 modeling teams to three data sets for wheat phenology. All teams first calibrated their model using their “usual” calibration approach, so it was possible to compare usual and protocol calibration. Evaluation of prediction error was based on data from sites and years not represented in the training data. Compared to usual calibration, calibration following the new protocol reduced the variability between modeling teams by 22% and reduced prediction error by 11%.
Spatiotemporal climate variability and food security implications in the Central Ethiopia Region
(2024) Senbeta, Abate Feyissa; Worku, Walelign; Gayler, Sebastian
Studies focusing on the spatiotemporal distribution of climatic parameters and meteorological drought are of paramount significance for countries like Ethiopia, where climate change and variability cause major losses to rain-dependent agriculture. In this study, the National Meteorology Institute of Ethiopia provided an Enhanced National Climate Services (ENACTS) dataset at a spatial resolution of approximately 4 km by 4 km over 38 years (1981–2018) was used to study climate trends, spatiotemporal variability, and meteorological drought in the Central Ethiopia Region. Coefficient of variation (CV), Standardized Rainfall Anomaly (SRA), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann-Kendall trend test, and Sen's slope were used for the analysis. The findings suggest that Belg rainfall (also known as "small-rain") varied greatly in space and time over the study area, with area-averaged CV of 29 % and pixel-level CVs ranging from 63 to 93 %. The average precipitation during Belg experienced a 15 % decrease from 2000 to 2019 compared to the preceding two decades, from 1981 to 1999. The maximum temperature has increased significantly during the Annual, Belg, and Bega seasons. The SPI and SRA showed that there have been multiple drought episodes with rising negative rainfall anomalies, with a drought occurring every 2.9 years during the Kiremt (also called "big rain", spanning from June to September) and Belg seasons. The growing negative rainfall anomaly, high CV, and highly significant increase in mean maximum temperature during the Belg season is concerning for food security and poverty eradication. The notable rise in rainfall during the June (sowing period) and November (harvesting period) also hurts crop production during the main cropping season. Thus, developing appropriate adaptation strategies and policies oriented toward climate-resilient agriculture is crucial to meet the global sustainable development goals (SDGs) and Africa Union's Agenda 2063.