Browsing by Subject "Realized volatility"

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Forecasting DAX Volatility: A Comparison of Time Series Models and Implied Volatilities
(2016) Weiß, Harald; Wagenhals, Gerhard
This study provides a comprehensive comparison of different forecasting approaches for the German stock market. Additionally, this thesis presents an application of the MCS approach to evaluate DAX volatility forecasts based on high-frequency data. Furthermore, the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the prediction of DAX volatility are analysed. The empirical analysis is based on data that contain all recorded transactions of DAX options and DAX futures traded on the EUREX from January 2002 to December 2009. The volatility prediction models employed in this study to forecast DAX volatility are selected based on the results of the general features of the forecasting models, and the analysis of the considered DAX time series. Within the class of time series models, the GARCH, the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH), the ARFIMA, and the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model are chosen to fit the DAX return and realised volatility series. Additionally, the Britten-Jones and Neuberger (2000) approach is applied to produce DAX implied volatility forecasts because it is based on a broader information set than the BS model. Finally, the BS model is employed as a benchmark model in this study. As the empirical analysis in this study demonstrates that DAX volatility changes considerably over the long sample period, it investigates whether structural breaks induce long memory effects. The effects are separately analysed by performing different structural break tests for the prediction models. A discussion of the impact on the applied forecasting methodology, and how it is accounted for, is also presented. Based on the MCS approach, the DAX volatility forecasts are separately evaluated for the full sample and the subperiod that excludes the two most volatile months of the financial crisis. Because the objective of this work is to provide information to investment and risk managers regarding which forecasting method delivers superior DAX volatility forecasts, the volatilities are predicted for one day, two weeks, and one month. Finally, the evaluation results are compared with previous findings in the literature for each forecast horizon.
State-dependent dynamics and interdependence of global financial markets
(2015) Maderitsch, Robert; Jung, Robert
This thesis investigates information transmission across international financial markets in four different studies. The common focus of all analyses is a long-term investigation of cross-market information transmission. Special consideration is given to the impact of the financial crisis of 2007 as well as the aspect of potential state-dependence in cross-market linkages. The following points provide a summary of the studies’ key questions: 1. Is there evidence for time- and state-dependence of return spillovers between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the US? What are the implications for informational efficiency? 2. Are there structural breaks in volatility spillovers between the markets considered? If so – are these effects consistent with the notion of contagion as a strong and sudden synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities? 3. Do quantile regressions provide new insights into return spillovers from the US to stock markets in Asia? Which conclusions can be drawn about Asian traders’ information processing at market opening? 4. Which new insights can be obtained from measuring transatlantic volatility interdependence based on synchronous 24-hour realized volatilities? How to estimate 24 hour realized volatilities despite intermittent high-frequency data and non-synchronous trading hours across stock markets in Europe and the US? Answers to these questions are of direct relevance for international policy makers and investors. The goal of maintaining financial stability has recently gained in importance in various institutions all over the world. A solid understanding of financial market linkages is not only important in the context of international asset allocation and risk management. It is also crucial with a view to improving the current financial architecture and to make the international financial system more resilient towards crises in the future.