Browsing by Subject "Population viability analysis"

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Analysis of the impact, costs and acceptance of lapwing plots as a protection measure for farmland birds in Germany
(2023) Buschmann, Christoph; Lippert, Christian
Biodiversity in the agricultural landscape is declining in the European Union (EU) including Germany. This trend is also observed for farmland bird populations that are used as an important indicator of overall species diversity. Among farmland birds, the Northern lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) is an indicator species whose population has been particularly affected. Populations suffer inter alia from frequent cultivation measures and degraded habitat quality on agriculturally used land. To improve the status of farmland bird populations, appropriate measures are called for both in the EU and on German national level in different strategy papers. The European Commission has set the concrete target to increase farmland bird populations by 30 % until 2050. Despite the high demand to plan the implementation of biodiversity strategies, literature provides little guidance for farmland birds, i. e. ex-ante modelling of how many protection measures and how much compensation are needed to achieve certain time-bound conservation targets. The thesis addresses this research gap by analysing the impact of the conservation measure ‘lapwing plot’. Lapwing plots are fallow sections within arable fields that can be used as feeding areas and - during the breeding season - provide cover for the chicks from predators. In detail, the thesis pursues three objectives: First, to project how much lapwing plot provision is required to meet specific time-bound conservation targets on a national level by using a spatially explicit population viability analysis (PVA). Second, to calculate the corresponding costs based on implementation and opportunity costs (i. e. gross margins forgone) for compensating farmers who participate in a lapwing plot agri-environmental scheme (AES). For this, the PVA is combined with an economic analysis. Third, to analyse the acceptance of a lapwing plot AES by surveying farmers with a discrete choice experiment (DCE). PVA results show that the lapwing population in Germany could decline from 70.000 breeding pairs in 2006 to 12.000 or 23.000 pairs (depending on model assumptions) in 2055 if no further conservation measures were taken and land use remained stable. To achieve the ’30 % plus conservation target’ of the EU Commission for the lapwing, 30 % or 65 % of the breeding pairs need to be protected by a lapwing plot in arable land or a comparably effective measure in grassland. The corresponding costs for protection on arable land range from on average 1.1 to 5.6 million € per year depending on model assumptions. Costs may, however, be reduced by up to 52 % with a regionally focused economic optimisation. Since AES participation is voluntary, acceptance is of crucial importance. The DCE conducted to analyse acceptance considers different design options if the lapwing plot were introduced as an AES and identifies possible drivers and inhibitors of farmers’ participation. Remarkably, those design options which ensure that the AES can be co-financed by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD), i. e., a participation period of five years and the nature of the relevant sanctions regime, are a particular acceptance barrier. However, so far EAFRD - as part of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) - has been the most important funding instrument for AESs. Therefore, the thesis outlines how the lack of EAFRD acceptance could be addressed in the new CAP period 2023-2027 and points out alternative funding instruments. In conclusion, the lapwing plot is - according to the PVA results - a suitable measure to meet conservation objectives, such as the ’30 % plus conservation target’ of the EU Commission, if it is implemented to a sufficient extent. However, it is questionable whether a sufficient extent of implementation can be achieved if the lapwing plot is put into practice relying on voluntary AES with the available funding instruments and limited budgets. This would require a high level of acceptance among farmers in the affected regions. Therefore, the lapwing plot needs to be combined with other conservation approaches including the expansion of protected areas and in-field measures, such as the reduced use of fertilisers and pesticides. For policy makers, it is recommended to develop combined solutions in overall strategies and perform corresponding ex-ante modelling. For such strategies the thesis provides an important basis and with the PVA a suitable expandable model.