Browsing by Subject "Entwicklungsländer"

Now showing 1 - 13 of 13

An empirical analysis of the Swiss generalized system of preferences
(2018) Ritzel, Christian; Grethe, Harald
The progressively introduced DFQFMA for LDCs has a positive effect on the size of LDCs’ preferential exports to Switzerland. Consequently, the DFQFMA has considerably improved market access for the world’s poorest countries. Eliminating tariffs (progressively) causes preferential agro-food and textile exports of LDCs to rise substantially. However, it has to be remarked that the success of the DFQFMA is limited to the agro-food and textile sectors and to a few countries. The descriptive analysis of agro-food exports indicates that trade liberalization is a success story merely for a few LDCs, namely Tanzania, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Malawi, Senegal and Uganda. Those seven countries capture a total share of nearly 80 percent of LDCs’ agro-food exports to Switzerland. In the textile sector we observe an even higher degree of market concentration concerning LDCs’ preferential exports. Here, three countries, namely Bangladesh, Cambodia and Nepal, account for 98 percent of LDCs’ preferential textile exports. It also can be noted that the GSP is a useful supplement to ‘duty-free tariffs’ (duty-free market access) under the WTO regime. For instance, 100 percent of LDCs’ agro-food exports from 2002 to 2011 entered Switzerland under reduced or duty-free tariffs. However, the share of preferential exports under the GSP was on average only 36 percent. In this context, the preference margin, which represents the main incentive to export under preferential conditions, compensates the costs of compliance associated with the GSP and yields an additional benefit for the importer has a consistent and positive effect on the level of the utilization rate. In particular, the application of the Heckman´selection model in article no. 1 makes clear that once trade contracts are established and an exporter has overcome bureaucratic obstacles in the form of proof of origin and proof of direct shipment, the ‘preference margin’ appears as the main incentive to export under preferential conditions granted by the GSP. While the effect of the size of ‘GSP eligible trade’ has a positive and significant effect in the case of the PPML estimations, the effect turned negative when the sample was restricted to positive values of the utilization rate in the case of the outcome equation of the Heckman selection model. This finding encourages our confidence that the ‘preference margin’ acts as the main incentive for exporting under preferential conditions. However, to benefit from these preferential tariffs, the institutional quality of a given DC or LDC is of crucial importance. Additionally, we address the question of whether reciprocal trade preferences are more beneficial for DCs compared to non-reciprocal trade preferences. Because trade preferences under the Swiss GSP are offered to the country group of DCs as a whole, non-reciprocal trade preferences are not tailored to the export structure of a particular DC. Consequently, by switching from non-reciprocal to negotiated reciprocal trade preferences, DCs such as Tunisia expect to negotiate terms which are tailored to their export structure and better conditions than competitors from countries which are still beneficiaries of the GSP. The Tunisian case study reveals that the switch from the GSP to an FTA causes no significant advantage in most of the export sectors. This implies that switching from non-reciprocal to reciprocal trade preferences yields advantages in export sectors where Tunisia has comparative cost advantages. This is especially true for the textile sector and partly so for the agro-food sector.
Aspects of demand-side oriented insurance of volatile food prices in developing and emerging countries
(2018) Hochscherf, Julian; Schiller, Jörg
The dissertation is concerned with the relation between formal and informal risk management in developing and emerging countries in the context of rainfall and food price variability. The dissertation contains three research projects. In order to systematize the literature on welfare effects of food price volatility and rainfall risks and the related coping strategies, a systematic review on the quantification of these two risk types has been performed. Many studies in the recent past have been published to quantify poverty effects of materialized risk such as drought events or the consequence of the 2008-09 food price crises in emerging and least developed countries. As agrarian economies in least developed countries heavily depend on the correct onset and amount of rainfall quantities, rainfall failures are likely to have adverse consequences for household income and its volatility. In addition, agrarian households in least developed countries are mostly net food consumers and thus highly dependent on the realization of food prices. The review systematizes the empirical evidence on adverse income effects of drought events and food price increases as well as it summarizes the risk management and coping strategies directly linked to these two shock types. A particular emphasis will be given to the stabilizing power of labor markets and adaptation through consumption responses. The second paper is concerned with informal risk management strategies taken out by agricultural households, in particular with the instrument of labor time allocation. Subsistence farmers in low income countries are confronted with multiple risks. In reaction to them, farm households have developed strategies to cope with yield risks to self-insure against these income shocks. Recent developments in global food markets have increased food price volatility, which, in particular, puts low-income households at risk. When small-scale farmers allocate their labor time over different income generating activities, they face the risk of uncertain purchasing power of income in the presence of food price variability. Thus, the paper analyzes the labor time allocation decision between self-employment and wage labor, taking into account the uncertain purchasing power of wages resulting from food price volatility and the farm production risk induced by rainfall variability. Using a panel structured household data set containing consumer-producer households in rural India, the labor time allocation decision between farming and labor market participation will be analyzed and the effect of production and food price uncertainty on labor time allocation will be estimated. The analysis reveals counterintuitive time allocation effects of risk. The third project is concerned with formal insurance demand by farm households and the interrelatedness between formal and informal risk provision. For this purpose, a data set for a weather index insurance demand product has been analyzed. Index based microinsurance as a tool to insure the income of agriculturally active households has triggered extensive discussions in the literature. Despite the convincing theoretical argumentation, the demand for these products stays behind expectations. Several studies revealed effects impacting the demand for index insurance, such as liquidity constraints, basis risk, lack of understanding and trust in insurers and products alike. This paper takes a different perspective and hypothesizes that low demand is due to heterogeneous risk exposure towards weather variability among potential insured resulting from informal risk management. The paper tests the impact of income heterogeneity as a measure of risk exposure on insurance demand and finds that risk exposure negatively affects insurance demand. In order to increase demand, it is concluded that product design should emphasize more the importance of income risk composition and exposure of potentially insured. The dissertation concludes with a critical discussion of how to reconcile formal and informal risk management practices and gives policy implications of how to innovate existing formal insurance products to increase demand.
Debt position of developing countries and new initiatives for debt reduction: a panel data fixed effects estimation of the impacts of the HIPC initiatives
(2005) Houssou, Nazaire; Heidhues, Franz
In September 1996, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund launched the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC). This initiative was endorsed by 180 governments around the world as an effective and welcome approach to help poor, severely indebted countries reduce debt as a part of the overall poverty reduction strategy. Three years later, the initiative was enhanced to provide for faster, broader and deeper debt relief. Using a panel data fixed effect estimation, this study assesses the achievements of the first and second HIPC initiatives and explores further areas of intervention that might help the HIPCs graduate from debt rescheduling and achieve sustainable growth and poverty alleviation. Despite moderate achievements of the HIPC measures so far, this paper argues in favour of a HIPC III initiative. Much more relief is needed to link debt reduction to poverty alleviation if the expectations raised by the HIPC initiatives are to become reality.
Engel curves, spatial variation in prices and demand for commodities in Cote d'Ivoire
(2011) Sousa-Poza, Alfonso; Gbakou, Monnet Benoit Patrick
This paper aims to estimate the price and income elasticities of the demand for essential commodities in Cote d?Ivoire. Using data from the 2002 Cote d'Ivoire Living Standard Survey and a theoretical framework developed by Crawford et al. (2003), we analyse price effects on the demand for groups of commodities by exploiting a relationship between unit values and commodity quantities and deriving Engel curves. Our findings reveal that the own-price elasticity of meat and dairy products is considerably stronger for rich households (those in the 90th percentile of total expenditure) than for poor households (those in the 10th percentile of total expenditure). Although all the modelled groups of commodities are normal goods, the paper shows that starch is more of a necessity for poor households than for rich ones, whereas meat and dairy products are more of a luxury good for poor households than for rich households.
Labour as a utility measure in contingent valuation studies : how good is it really?
(2010) Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Heinke, Antonia; Duc, Nguyen Minh; Van Dinh, Pham
The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) aims at the assessment of people's willingness to pay (WTP) for a public project. The sum of the individual WTPs is interpreted as the social benefits of the project under consideration and compared to the project costs. If the benefits exceed the costs the project is recommended for realization. In very poor societies budgets are so tight that households cannot give up any part of their income, i.e. of their market consumption, in favour of a public project, so that their WTP for that project stated in a CVM interview has to be zero or close to zero. This leads to a severe discrimination against poor regions in the decision process on the allocation of public funds. Therefore, several authors suggest to use labour contributions to the realization of a public project instead of monetary contributions as a measure of people's WTP for that project. In this paper we show theoretically and empirically, based on a CVM study conducted in Vietnam, that labour is severely flawed as a measuring rod for individual utility so that CVM based on labour contributions does not provide a reliable and meaningful decision rule for the allocation of public projects.
Labour as a utility measure reconsidered
(2017) Pham, Van Dinh; Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Nguyen, Minh Duc; Rehl, Antonia; Siepmann, Ute
In Stated Preference studies for the appraisal of environmental projects in poor countries or regions it often turns out that the stated willingness to pay of people for environmental improvements, which is used as measure of individual welfare changes, is very low. This is often interpreted as the result of extremely tight budget constraints, which make it impossible that people express their true appreciation of an environmental project in terms of their willingness to pay for it. Therefore, it is sometimes suggested to use labour contributions instead of money as a numeraire to measure utility in such studies. In this paper we show theoretically and empirically that this suggestion is not compatible with the principles of welfare theory because of several inconsistencies. We also illustrate the validity of our arguments empirically based on the results of a Contingent Valuation study conducted in a rural area in northern Vietnam.
Life cycle assessment of biogas used for the provision of thermal household energy in developing countries
(2011) Lansche, Jens; Schock, S.; Müller, Joachim
The utilization of dried dung as fuel for household cooking stoves is very common in rural areas of developing countries. The objective of this study was to compare the environmental impacts for the provision of cooking heat from biogas with the utilization of dung cakes. For this purpose, the method of life cycle assessment was used for assessing the impact categories global warming potential, acidification potential, eutrophication potential and human toxicity potential. The results show that anaerobic digestion at household scale can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG?s) as well as several other emissions in rural areas.
Measuring social capital and innovation in poor agricultural communities : the case of Cháparra, Peru
(2011) Arata, Atilio; Hartmann, Dominik
In the last decades substantive advance has been made in the measurement and understanding of frontier innovation in highly industrialized settings. However, little research focused on the process of learning and the introduction of novelties in smallholder farming of poor agricultural communities. Considering that 1.5 billion people in developing countries live in such smallholder households this is an essential shortcoming. In addressing three crucial questions about the measurement and promotion of endogenous local development this paper contributes to close this research gap. The three questions are: a) how can we measure social capital and innovation in poor agricultural communities, b) what is the impact of external agents on local structures and c) what are the relations between the social capital and the innovative performance of the farmer. In a first step a comprehensive questionnaire with 89 questions on diverse dimensions of social capital and innovation has been elaborated and applied to the agricultural valley of Cháparra in the South of Peru. The results allow for an indepth analysis of the capabilities, network position and innovative behavior of the farmers. In a second step, we apply social network analysis techniques to analyze the role and position of the relevant actors in the local as well as in the external technical information networks with a special focus on the influence of an external NGO. The analysis reveals a deep structural impact of the NGO and significant correlations between the network position of the farmers and their innovative performance. Three crucial issues for research on smallholder innovation are identified. First, diverse dimensions of social capital and innovation have to be differentiated when studying endogenous development. Second, it has to be assessed to which degree the modification of the existing social structures by external agents can be harmful or beneficial. Third, social network analysis can help us to gain a better understanding of the complex relations between social capital and innovation and how these can contribute to foster sustainable development projects.
On the distribution and adoption of genetically modified seeds in developing countries
(2004) Basu, Arnab; Qaim, Matin
Given the proprietary nature of most genetically modified (GM) seed technologies, the question arises as to how farmers in developing countries can gain proper access to these innovations. Based on empirical observations, a theoretical model is developed which focuses on farmers? adoption decisions in response to the pricing strategies of a foreign patent holder and the government. If the government is able to commit to the announced policy, subsidizing the use of traditional seeds can increase coverage of GM technology and domestic welfare. The possibility of the government obtaining a license to distribute GM seeds domestically through a transfer to the monopolist is also considered.
Opportunities and constraints for agrofuels in developing countries : case studies on economic viability and employment effects of Jatropha production
(2010) Grass, Martin; Zeller, Manfred
This dissertation was motivated by controversial statements of politicians and lobby groups for and against first-generation agrofuel production. Therefore this thesis contributes to a more realistic view on opportunities and constraints for agrofuel production based on first-generation technologies. The findings are based on an intensive literature review covering the following topics: current production trends of ethanol and agrodiesel, their potential for fossil energy substitution and greenhouse gas reduction including related costs, rural development and poverty alleviation. This more general overview on agrofuels was deepened by own research on Jatropha seed production in India and Madagascar. In this context the economic viability of Jatropha seed production and possible income effects for households living in the vicinity of a Jatropha plantation were analyzed. For this special agrofuel feedstock the findings allowed shedding some light on important aspects of the much broader topic concerning the production of agrofuels. To cover the above mentioned topics this dissertation is structured around three research papers. The first paper identifies and discusses the opportunities and constraints of first-generation agrofuel production in developed and developing countries and is based on an intensive literature review. Therefore this paper contrasts arguments used by politicians to justify agrofuel support measures like energy security, greenhouse gas reduction potential, income generation and possible rural development with new scientific findings on each argument. Furthermore data on worldwide trends in ethanol and agrodiesel production were presented. The second paper focuses on one possible option to lower competition between food and agrofuel production at least partially. This option is seen in the production of Jatropha seeds on marginal land not suitable for food production. In this context an Indian case study revealed the economic viability of Jatropha seed production on marginal land. The database for this study includes data derived from literature as well as experimental field data provided by the ?International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics?. The third paper addresses possible income effects for rural households offering their labour force to a Jatropha plantation in central Madagascar. The econometric impact assessment is based on a socio-economic household survey undertaken by the author in 2009. To account for possible selection bias the propensity score matching approach was used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by comparing the average income of Jatropha plantation households and control households. The findings for 336 households reveal positive income effects for households working at the Jatropha plantation. The dissertation concludes that more investments in research are needed to gain a potential win-win situation for rural households, investors and the environment especially for the case of developing countries. The results lead to the conclusion, that smallholder based Jatropha seed production should not be promoted in developing countries. Therefore this dissertation concludes further that it would be far better for developing countries to let international investors set up Jatropha plantations, hence in this case the economic risk is borne by the foreign investors. Furthermore abundant labour in rural areas could find employment opportunities with such plantations and therefore would be able to generate some income for their families. Nevertheless the implementation of Jatropha projects financed by international investor?s needs regulations set up by national governments. Those regulations should cover each aspect within the entire value chain of Jatropha agrofuel production and should be embedded in a national energy and rural development policy. Furthermore institutional frameworks such as land tenure security and labour rights have to be enforced. Setting up aforementioned regulations and institutional frameworks can prevent possible constraints such as, land grabbing, exploitation of rural labourers, loss of biodiversity and competition between Jatropha seed and food production e.g. for scarce water, which could occur due to foreign investment in local Jatropha (and other agrofuel feedstocks) cultivation in the worst case.
Tierbetriebene Antriebssysteme für Nacherntearbeiten in Entwicklungsländern
(1993) Dippon, Klaus; Kutzbach, Heinz Dieter
Auf dem Hintergrund der starken Bevölkerungszunahme in Entwicklungsländern sind gezielte Maßnahmen erforderlich, um die Versorgung der dortigen Bevölkerung mit Lebensmitteln zu verbessern. Die Nutzung von Zugtieren für landwirtschaftliche Arbeitsprozesse bietet gegenüber der Handarbeit die Möglichkeit, die Produktivität in der Landwirtschaft zu steigern. Mit der Einführung von Göpeln können Nacherntearbeiten, wie beispielsweise das Schälen von Reis und das Mahlen von Getreide, mechanisiert werden. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden drei verschiedene Göpelsysteme untersucht und hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung für den Einsatz in Entwicklungsländern miteinander verglichen.
Trade integration, global capital flows and the link to institutional quality from a North-South perspective
(2020) Schneider, Sophie Therese; Jung, Benjamin
This doctoral thesis is a cumulative dissertation containing three essays. In the first essay, I create a panel data set of North-South preferential trade agreements (PTAs) building on the comprehensive database on the design of trade agreements (DESTA). I analyze the effects of the depth and number of PTAs signed on the quality of institutions in developing countries, the global South, measured as the political risk component investment profile of the ICRG database. I show that the system GMM is the appropriate estimator to apply for my empirical analysis to account for various sources of endogeneity. I show that signing deep North-South PTAs positively affects institutions in the South. The results differ with respect to the type of agreement and region. The second essay deals with the determinants of PTAs focusing on institutional distance as a driving factor and regarding PTAs as an instrument to compensate for missing institutions. I argue that the effect of institutional distance is specifically important (1) in a North-South trade relationship where institutional distance is particularly large and (2) if countries trade a large share of contract-intensive goods. For this analysis I create a panel data set including a large number of developing countries and a variable to measure the difference of the share of bilateral contract-intensive exports and show that a linear probability model for discrete choice panel data is a suitable estimator to be used. I address endogeneity using an instrument variable (IV) approach. I show that institutional distance promotes the formation of PTAs. Comparing this effect for North-North, North-South, and South-South country pairs reveals that the positive effect of institutional distance on the probability of PTA formation is specifically high for the formation of North-South PTAs. Furthermore, I find that the effect is nonlinear and that trading contract-intensive goods reinforces the positive effect of institutional distance for the formation of North-South PTAs and may offset negative effects. Robustness checks with regard to the underlying sample reveal that the effect of institutional distance is driven by North-South relationships involving the EU. Essay 3 is dedicated to global investment flows and aims at deriving a global model to determine the factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) by considering investment flows between and within North and South. We empirically estimate and assess global FDI models, namely the gravity and knowledge capital (KK) model, based on the new CDIS data set by the IMF, which includes a large number of developing and transition countries. This allows us to detect potential vertical motives for FDI and to address the global trend of increasing FDI from and to the global South. We find the gravity model to achieve the best theory-consistent out-of-sample prediction, particularly when parameter heterogeneity of South and North FDI is allowed for. Controlling for surrounding market potential is important to recover the horizontal effect of the gravity model. Including institutional, cultural, or financial factors does not improve the model performance distinctly although results for those variables are mostly in line with theory.
Vulnerability and risk management of rural farm households in Northern Vietnam
(2010) Fischer, Isabel; Heidhues, Franz
Despite the achievements of the ?doi moi? reform process, which was launched in 1986, Vietnam is still one of the poorest countries in the world, with 28.9 per cent of the total population (85 million in 2007) living below the national poverty line (UNDP 2007). Especially the mountainous, rural areas of Northern Vietnam are underdeveloped. Poor and near-poor farm households endure manifold risks and income shocks, which threaten their existence. Normally, insurance systems would step in to assist. In developing countries however, where access to formal insurance services is hardly available, rural farm households have developed alternative risk management strategies. The Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) of the Department for International Development (DFID 1999), was applied as an analytical tool to identify and assess risks and risk management strategies of vulnerable rural livelihoods in the Uplands of Northern Vietnam. The role of informal social networks was analyzed with the help of Social Network Analysis (SNA). An Adaptative Conjoint Analysis (ACA) was implemented to examine the potential demand for a formal or semi-formal microinsurance scheme in the area of livestock insurance. Furthermore, additional insights were gained from interdisciplinary research on issues of human, health and livelihood security, as well as from case studies on natural resource use in Southeast Asia. The central hypotheses of this research on livelihood strategies in general and adaptive strategies such as insurance in particular are that they (1) have the potential to reduce livelihood vulnerability and that (2) the differentiated knowledge of livelihood strategies is crucial for a better understanding of the reasoning behind the exploitation of livelihood assets, such as natural resources or physical assets in the form of livestock, despite the negative medium and long-term effects. Research results lead to the following conclusions: First of all, only a very elaborate use of existing capital assets can improve the livelihood situation of vulnerable households in Northern Vietnam. Living in remote mountainous regions with scarce natural resources and limited access to other assets, the preconditions are rather difficult for ethnic minority people, even more for women. Secondly, in order to improve the situation, all stakeholders have to be aware of the existing risk management strategies (e.g. raising livestock and selling it in case of a livelihood emergency is one of the most popular risk coping strategies in the mountainous regions of Northern Vietnam) and learn from both, advantages and disadvantages of currently applied strategies to translate them into effective policies. Concerning the access to financial services, people still face several constraints, as credits are often not available for certain activities or at a certain point in time. In addition, savings and insurance services, when available are not adapted to the needs. Furthermore, emerging expenditures for livelihood risks usually go beyond the scope of the dis-saving (in cash and in kind) ability of rural households. Taking into consideration the above stated situation of changing agricultural activities, including higher input use, and the resulting decline in the number of large ruminants, one should be very careful not to destroy the so far still functioning traditional social networks. Even though these networks are not able to fully buffer all shocks and crises, they are at least one asset (social capital asset) that is initially accessible by everybody and quite often a means to compensate to some degree the lack of other capital assets as depicted in the SLF. Research results point to a number of policy issues that need to be addressed if household?s vulnerability to poverty is to be significantly reduced among ethnic minority households in Northern Vietnam. First of all, poverty reduction strategies and programs need to consider a broader target group, not only the currently poor but also the vulnerable households. The promotion of innovative financial products, such as a combination of credit and insurance, especially for loans that are taken up to purchase livestock, is considered a successful approach to support vulnerable households. Finally, it is assumed that an efficient and accessible health care system would be an important alternative for securing livelihoods. In addition, im¬pro¬ved extension services and knowledge transfer for all people, especially women, could sup¬port a sustainable future development of ethnic minority households and therefore, in the long-run, lead to poverty alleviation.