Browsing by Subject "Biodiversity response"

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    The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models
    (2024) Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma; da Silva, André Pinto; Oberpriller, Johannes; Mimet, Anne; Kieslinger, Julia; Berger, Thomas; Blechschmidt, Jana; Brönner, Maximilian; Classen, Alice; Fallert, Stefan; Hartig, Florian; Hof, Christian; Hoffmann, Markus; Knoke, Thomas; Krause, Andreas; Lewerentz, Anne; Pohle, Perdita; Raeder, Uta; Rammig, Anja; Redlich, Sarah; Rubanschi, Sven; Stetter, Christian; Weisser, Wolfgang; Vedder, Daniel; Verburg, Peter H.; Zurell, Damaris; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Ecosystem Modelling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Mendoza‐Ponce, Alma; Research Program on Climate Change, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico; da Silva, André Pinto; Department of Ecology and Genetics, Animal Ecology, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Oberpriller, Johannes; Theoretical Ecology Lab, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany; Mimet, Anne; Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Kieslinger, Julia; Chair of Human Geography and Development Studies, Institute of Geography, Friedrich‐Alexander University Erlangen‐Nuernberg, Erlangen, Germany; Berger, Thomas; Land‐Use Economics in the Tropics and Subtropics, Hans‐Ruthenberg Institute, Hohenheim University, Hohenheim, Germany; Blechschmidt, Jana; Ecosystem Modelling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Brönner, Maximilian; Chair of Human Geography and Development Studies, Institute of Geography, Friedrich‐Alexander University Erlangen‐Nuernberg, Erlangen, Germany; Classen, Alice; Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocentre, University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Fallert, Stefan; Ecosystem Modelling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Hartig, Florian; Theoretical Ecology Lab, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany; Hof, Christian; Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Hoffmann, Markus; Chair of Aquatic Systems Biology, Department of Life Science Systems, Limnologische Station Iffeldorf, School of Life Science, Technical University of Munich, Iffeldorf, Germany; Knoke, Thomas; Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Institute of Forest Management, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Krause, Andreas; Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Land Surface‐Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Lewerentz, Anne; Ecosystem Modelling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Pohle, Perdita; Chair of Human Geography and Development Studies, Institute of Geography, Friedrich‐Alexander University Erlangen‐Nuernberg, Erlangen, Germany; Raeder, Uta; Chair of Aquatic Systems Biology, Department of Life Science Systems, Limnologische Station Iffeldorf, School of Life Science, Technical University of Munich, Iffeldorf, Germany; Rammig, Anja; Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Land Surface‐Atmosphere Interactions, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Redlich, Sarah; Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocentre, University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Rubanschi, Sven; Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Stetter, Christian; Agricultural Production and Resource Economics, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Weisser, Wolfgang; Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Department of Life Science Systems, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany; Vedder, Daniel; Ecosystem Modelling, Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology (CCTB), University of Wurzburg, Würzburg, Germany; Verburg, Peter H.; Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Zurell, Damaris; Ecology & Macroecology, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
    Current approaches to project spatial biodiversity responses to climate change mainly focus on the direct effects of climate on species while regarding land use and land cover as constant or prescribed by global land‐use scenarios. However, local land‐use decisions are often affected by climate change and biodiversity on top of socioeconomic and policy drivers. To realistically understand and predict climate impacts on biodiversity, it is, therefore, necessary to integrate both direct and indirect effects (via climate‐driven land‐use change) of climate change on biodiversity. In this perspective paper, we outline how biodiversity models could be better integrated with regional, climate‐driven land‐use models. We initially provide a short, non‐exhaustive review of empirical and modelling approaches to land‐use and land‐cover change (LU) and biodiversity (BD) change at regional scales, which forms the base for our perspective about improved integration of LU and BD models. We consider a diversity of approaches, with a special emphasis on mechanistic models. We also look at current levels of integration and at model properties, such as scales, inputs and outputs, to further identify integration challenges and opportunities. We find that LU integration in BD models is more frequent than the other way around and has been achieved at different levels: from overlapping predictions to simultaneously coupled simulations (i.e. bidirectional effects). Of the integrated LU‐BD socio‐ecological models, some studies included climate change effects on LU, but the relative contribution of direct vs. indirect effects of climate change on BD remains a key research challenge. Important research avenues include concerted efforts in harmonizing spatial and temporal resolution, disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on biodiversity, explicitly accounting for bidirectional feedbacks, and ultimately feeding socio‐ecological systems back into climate predictions. These avenues can be navigated by matching models, plugins for format and resolution conversion, and increasing the land‐use forecast horizon with adequate uncertainty. Recent developments of coupled models show that such integration is achievable and can lead to novel insights into climate–land use–biodiversity relations.