Browsing by Subject "Bayesian networks"

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    Role of irrigation water pricing in sustainable water resources management along the Tarim river, Northwest China
    (2016) Mamitimin, Yusuyunjiang; Doluschitz, Reiner
    The main objectives of the study are to explore whether irrigation water pricing can lead to efficient water use in agriculture along the Tarim River. To understand land and water use development and driving forces along the Aksu-Tarim Basin, a workshop was conducted in Urumqi which is capital city of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Local experts from different research disciplines as well as relevant stakeholder participated in the workshop. Besides, data were collected and analyzed from preselected sources such as statistical yearbook and government’s official document. Research results embedded in the first article revealed that there was a huge land expansion and increase in water use for agriculture during the period from 1989 to 2011. The results also indicate that interaction of vast population growth, positive price development, agricultural profitability increase, government’s afforestation program (Grain for Green) and insufficient control of land expansion were the main driving forces for those developments. Farmers’ behavior towards the changes of irrigation water pricing is one of the important factor determining efficiency of water pricing to elicit water conservation and demand reduction. Therefore, a total of 257 farm household interviews were conducted, of which 128 served to find out farmers’ responses towards the changes of water pricing in different parts of Tarim River in July and August 2012. The results of statistical analyses are presented in the second article. Results show that only less than half of the interviewed farm households would react to increased water prices with proper changes of their farming practices leading to a more efficient water use. Results also show that increasing water prices encourage the farmers to shift their irrigation from surface water to groundwater which may result in further environmental problems. In the second article it is not possible to access the impact of different water price levels and changes in the water pricing practices because of its technicality and complexity. Besides, an irrigation water pricing reform needs to consider institutional aspects which are usually ignored in research on water pricing. Therefore, an innovative approach, Bayesian network modeling, was employed to find out the effects of different water price levels, changes in water pricing practices, and other agricultural policy options on the water use efficiency along the Tarim River. Results presented in the third article show no significant impact of water prices increased by 0-50% on water use efficiency. Solely an increase of 100% may have a relevant positive effect on water use efficiency. The model results also reveal that water pricing may provide a promising option to increase water use efficiency provided that volumetrically measuring systems, subsidies for water saving technologies, and technical support are available. The fourth article discusses the economics of cotton production and land use changes along the Tarim River from 1989 to 2009 using data from official statistical yearbooks. The results of a trend analysis indicate that the land area of cotton increased. In contrast, the area of other crops slightly decreased. Results of comparative advantage index of cotton production show that most farmers in the upper stream are more efficient in cotton production compared to farmers of the lower stream, whereas farmers in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps are more efficient than farmers outside the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. The overall results of the study indicate that irrigation water pricing is not the best option to achieve an efficient water use in agriculture along the Tarim River. It requires additional adjustments and supportive agricultural policies such as the availability of volumetric measuring systems, subsidies for water-saving technologies, technological support for farmers, as well as a further institutional reform. Besides, special attention should be given to the protection of groundwater resources, especially when water prices increase. Furthermore, additional research is needed to examine the impacts of water pricing on farmers’ welfare, and the role of transferable water rights and water user associations in terms of an efficient water use along the Tarim River.