Browsing by Subject "Agrarpolitik"

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Agriculture as emission source and carbon sink : economic-ecological modelling for the EU-15
(2010) Blank, Daniel; Zeddies, Jürgen
The thesis develops and applies analytical tools to describe economic and ecological impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in European agriculture. Agriculture is widely perceived as emission source, but actually it can also act as emission sink by sequestration of atmospheric carbon to agricultural soils. Thereby, soil carbon pools potentially store twice as much carbon as contained in the atmosphere. In view of this circumstance, the study analysed agricultural emission sources and mitigation scenarios in the area of conservation tillage and bio-energy production. The analysis was within a mixed-integer programming model optimizing total gross margins of typical farms of NUTS-II-regions in the EU-15. For this micro-economic analysis high quality region specific cost estimates for main agricultural products were indispensible. Thereby a new approach was developed that draws European accountancy data and German engineering cost data. The first dataset comprises of up-to-date crop-unspecific cost data as indicated by European bookkeeping farms. The second comprises of crop specific cost data from German farms. Through a combination of both datasets crop specific estimates of production costs on regional level for the EU-15 evolved. Another study that starts from accountancy data to deduct product cost estimates is currently funded by the European Commission (Farm Accountancy Cost Estimation and Policy Analysis of European Agriculture). By monetarizing greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto-Protocol has increased the demand for economic-ecological models to analyse emission scenarios. The study model, EU-EFEM, integrates biophysical data to site-specifically simulate soil carbon dynamics in terms of the mitigation scenario ?conservational tillage?. This approach provides a level of detail that is significantly superior to the one achieved by soil emission factors specified only to global climate zones, a few soil types, and soil management alternatives like provided by the global standard work for the calculation of greenhouse gas emissions, the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The biophysical data was integrated from the EPIC-model to which an interface was established. In the analysis of the agricultural sink function increased input of organic matter, crop rotational modifications, and conservational tillage were assessed. A first scenario that could be monitored relatively easily forces minimum shares of conservational tillage per farm. It was shown that all farms in the EU-15 could comply even with a forced share of 100%. But on average, shares exceeding 80% entail economic losses, basically because of the incompatibility of certain current crop rotations with conservational tillage. Against the average loss of 20 ?/ha in case of 100% of forced conservational tillage, stand single farms facing a loss of 350 ?/ha. Simultaneously soil carbon accumulation remained at marginal levels. In another scenario that directly forces soil carbon accumulation while leaving the choice of the appropriate means to farmers, an accumulation of 181 million tCO2e was achieved. This value corresponds to a forced accumulation of 1.0 t C/ha, a rate out of reach for 25 out of all analysed NUTS-II-regions. Mitigation costs are at 70 ?/tCO2e in this case, but at 10 ?/tCO2e only if only those regions are considered in which the minimum accumulation rates can be achieved. The latter is a competitive value compared to current values of EU traded emission rights. Policy, however, should withdraw from a regulation forcing minimum SOC-accumulation. Main reasons are the difficult monitoring, which would be required on site level, and the absence of a success guarantee on side of farmers for taken measures. Designing effective political instruments, the humus balance as stipulated in the Cross-Compliance regulation of the reformed AGENDA 2000 represents a prefect starting point. The study also analyzed agricultural biogas production with electricity recovery in a combined heat and power (CHP) unit and different (waste) heat utilization rates. European agriculture could increase annual profits by 1.6 to 9.2 billion ? depending mainly on waste heat utilization rate. In the best case, the contribution to climate change mitigation is 263 Mill tCO2e while realising a mitigation gain of 5 ?/tCO2e when excluding subsidies comprised in the feed-in tariff. Being an issue in any discussion about agricultural bio-energy production, the study also analyses the competition for agricultural land with food and feed production. Tapping the full agricultural biogas production potential, 28.7% of grassland and 18.5% of arable land would be bound, although the study constrains biogas production to co-fermentation with manure. The impacts of this competition on agricultural prices could not be analysed in this study, since the applied model is a farm model and not a market equilibrium model. By means of literature research, however, it was concluded that subsidies of biogas production should focus on promoting the fermentation of manure and the utilization of waste heat in order to limit area competition and not to promote the utilization of cultivated biomass.
Agro-economic policy analysis with the regional production model ACRE : a case study for Baden-Wuerttemberg
(2011) Henseler, Martin; Dabbert, Stephan
Since its introduction the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) has undergone several reforms in order to adapt policy instruments and enable the agricultural sector to fulfil multiple functions with respect to economic, supply and environmental objectives. In the German federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg agricultural production is characterized by regional heterogeneity. Therefore it is important to estimate the impacts resulting from changes in the CAP at a detailed regional level. In this study the agricultural policy model ACRE (Agro-eConomic pRoduction model at rEgional level) has been used to simulate different policy scenarios and to analyze regional economic, production and environmental impacts. In particular the study aims to address the following research questions: What are the regional impacts of different policy measures in the German federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg with respect to economic, production and environmental objectives? How suitable are the simulated policy measures for achieving the policy objectives of the CAP 2003 reform, as well as the objectives of subsidy reduction, promotion of energy crop production, reduction of environmental pollution and promotion of agro-environmental measures? How suitable is the regional supply model ACRE as a tool for policy analysis and policy decision support? In order to address the research questions, ACRE has been updated, adapted and extended to simulate agricultural production in the federal state Baden-Wuerttemberg at NUTS3 level. The policy scenarios simulated in this study are defined to cover recent discussions on the future development of the CAP and their results are analysed according to a regional framework for NUTS3 counties, farm types and the complete model region. The simulation of the reference year (REF) implies the policy reform Agenda 2000 in the simulation year 2000. Thus, REF represents the observed situation of regional agricultural production on whose statistical data ACRE is calibrated. The scenario CAP2003 simulates the policy measures of the CAP 2003 reform in the simulation year 2015. Assumptions of increased yields and prices as well as harmonized direct payments for arable land and grassland result in an increase in income as well as in an increase of subsidy volume. In the entire model region Baden-Wuerttemberg cereal production increases while the production of fattening bulls and pigs decreases. Increases in crop production intensity result in an increase in environmental pollution. The scenario CAP2003 is used as the baseline scenario to compare the results of simulated policy scenarios which are delineated in the following paragraphs only with the most important results for the complete model region Baden-Wuerttemberg. In two subsidy reduction scenarios the simulated policy instruments aim to reduce subsidy volume by reducing Pillar 1 payments by 60% and by shifting 70% of the money from Pillar 1 to Pillar 2 respectively. Both scenarios result in the positive impact of a decrease in subsidy volume, but show a negative impact, especially an increase of abandoned land. In two energy crop scenarios the production of energy maize is simulated under the assumption that different situations in energy policy and energy markets result in different competitiveness between production of energy maize and food. In both scenarios energy crop production partially replaces cereal production, although the extent varies according to the high or small level of competitiveness between production of energy maize and food. Impacts on agricultural income and subsidies are small while increased environmental pressure is expected in the event of a significant expansion in energy crop production. Two nitrogen reduction scenarios simulate policy measures according to the water framework directive (WFD) and the OSPAR convention. The scenario according to the WFD (limitation of organic nitrogen input to a maximum of 170kg nitrogen per hectare) does not result in any impacts. In contrast, the scenario according to the OSPAR convention (reduction of nitrogen input quantities by 10%) results in a decrease in environmental pollution and is accompanied by a reduction of income and reduction of agricultural production under land abandonment. In the scenario of mandatory agri-environmental measures (AEM) it is assumed that the area with applied AEM is extended. The increase of AEM area results in a decrease in cereal production and a reduction of environmental pollution, while income decreases only slightly. Two combined scenarios simulate a mix of different policy and market situations which provoke an intensive and an extensive agricultural production. The results of these scenarios illustrate the interaction of the single policy measures. The measures of subsidy reduction have similar reducing impacts on income and subsidy volume in both scenarios. In the intensive production scenario high competitive energy crop production and a less restrictive nitrogen restriction result in a compensation effect of land abandonment by extension of energy crop area. In the extensive production scenarios, less competitive energy crop production and a high restrictive nitrogen constraint result in reduced agricultural production, increased land abandonment and reduced environmental pressure. In order to evaluate the impact of the simulated policy measures on the achievement of policy objectives the results of all scenarios are compared and ranked according to their impact on the policy objectives. The analyses of the model results show impacts of policy measures which are likely to be expected. However, the analyses at NUTS3 as well as farm types' level reveal that the impacts of the policy measures can be regionally quite different. Thus the detailed regional model results clearly show that (and where) the implementation of agricultural policy measures requires a regional specific evaluation and monitoring. In order to discuss the study with regard to the methods applied and the outcome, a final strengths and weaknesses analysis was conducted. The analysis highlights the strengths of the study (e.g. the model validation, the regional analysis of different policy scenarios, the possibility of cooperation with regional stakeholders). The validation and the results of the study also show that ACRE is a suitable tool for regional agricultural policy analysis and policy decision support. Supplementary work could help to overcome single shortcomings and caveats and to further develop the model. However, ACRE can already be used now as a useful tool for the regional agricultural policy analysis of the CAP in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
An economic analysis of the implementation options of soil conservation policies
(2008) Schuler, Johannes; Dabbert, Stephan
The objective of this study is to analyze the economic and agricultural aspects of the implementation of soil conservation programmes and to suggest appropriate measure-instrument combinations for efficient soil conservation as a decision support for the implementation of soil conservation policies. Emphasis is given to the resource and institutional economics of soil conservation. In the empirical part, the efficiency of policy options is analysed using the example of a region in north-eastern Germany based on model calculations. After an introduction to the topic of soil functions and soil degradation definitions, the implementation concepts for soil protection measures at the international and national level are described. Based on the theoretical economic analysis of soils as a natural resource, the existing property rights, the public good characteristics of soils and the resulting externalities lead to the conclusion that market failure does exist. Therefore, the non-market coordination of soil use is justified. A cost-effectiveness analysis was derived based on the theory of ?safe-minimum-standard? for the appropriate assessment of the implementation options of soil conservation policies. A fuzzy-logic-based method, which is based on an expanded Universal Soil Loss Equation approach (USLE), was applied for the assessment of soil erosion risk in the sample region. The approach considers both the natural conditions and the characteristics of the cropping practice. The very detailed description of the cropping practices allowed for the specific assessment of erosion relevant effects. This, in combination with the high detail site descriptions provided this study with a very precise regional approach. The regional decision-support system MODAM (multi-objective decision support tool for agro-ecosystem management) was applied for the assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of different policy options. The policy scenarios examined include a CAP reform scenario with decoupled payments in accordance with the proposed conditions of the year 2013. This scenario was used as the reference scenario for the other possible scenarios of soil conservation policies. The three main scenarios for the policy options are 1) a non-spatially oriented, 2) a spatially-oriented incentive programmes for reduced tillage practices and 3) a regulation scenario that prohibits the cultivation of highly erosive crops (row crops) on erodible soils. The prohibition of row crops on highly erodible soils led both to lower on-farm costs and lower budget costs in comparison to the incentive programmes for reduced tillage. All three scenarios had comparable reduction in soil erosion. Based on the modeling results the ban on row crops on highly erodible sites is therefore the preferable option in terms of the cost-effectiveness ratio. The inclusion of transaction costs in this study helps expand the scope of policy analysis, for the total costs of a policy would be underestimated if only the budget costs for the direct payments to farmers were considered. Transaction costs understood as a cost for the (re-) definition and implementation of property rights can reach substantial amounts and reduce the total efficiency of a policy. The results of the qualitative analysis of the transaction costs of the study policy options also supported the option of row crop regulation on highly erodible soils. A model that serves as decision support for both the economic and agricultural aspects of soil conservation had been successfully developed in this study. Different policy options were analysed for a cost-effective solution of soil conservation programmes. Based on the final discussion on the involved transaction costs, the regulatory approach (a spatially-focussed ban on row crops) was shown to be the most cost-effective option with potentially lower transaction costs. The main criteria for a cost-effective policy design are high efficiency in both the agricultural measures (practices) and the spatial correlation between the programme area and the high erosion risk areas. Incentive programmes in combination with less effective agricultural practices showed a worse cost-benefit ratio for the sample area than the regulation approach, which is based on more effective agricultural practices.
Domestic support payments and trade distortions : the neglected issue in global general equilibrium modeling
(2016) Urban, Kirsten Gunver; Brockmeier, Martina
The domestic support payments provided to agricultural producers are frequently the subject of heated debate because they distort industry and trade structures causing efficiency losses and welfare redistribution. In recent years, high-income countries have initiated several reforms of their agricultural policies to decrease such distortions. These reforms are partly enforced by the requirements to reduce distorting domestic support, as agreed upon by the World Trade Organ-ization (WTO). A prominent example of such a heavily criticized policy is the agricultural sup-port of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU). In 2005, the EU introduced the Single Farm Payment (SFP), which is supposedly decoupled from production, to decrease the production stimulating effects of its CAP, and thus to reduce the distortions caused by the domestic support payments. However, these policy instruments are also contro-versial because the extent to which decoupled payments, such as the SFP, distort trade is still unclear. Domestic support provided to agricultural producers comprises a multitude of different and country-specific agricultural policy instruments, which makes it difficult to analyze the corresponding effects on domestic and third countries’ industry structure, trade, and welfare. The most common approach for evaluating the impacts from alternative policy options is based on Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Nevertheless, the attention to detail re-garding the complex structure and country specific properties of domestic support, and in par-ticular the SFP, in such models has been largely neglected. Objective of this cumulative thesis is to analyze the effects of domestic support payments on industry output, international trade and welfare, with a particular focus on the impact of vary-ing assumptions of the SFP’s degree of decoupling in CGE modeling. Furthermore, this thesis aims to evaluate the trade-distorting effect of domestic support over time and provide a cross-countries comparison. Therefore, the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modeling framework is ex-tended to enable a much more detailed representation of domestic support payments based on the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE) database and considering the requirements re-garding production that trigger the eligibility for specific subsidies. Applying a complex updat-ing procedure, using the EU CAP as an example, a set of 21 databases accounting for various assumptions about the SFP’s degree of coupling to output levels is created. These databases are then used to investigate the extent to which various assumptions of the SFP’s degree of decou-pling and the corresponding modeling cause differences in results when a 100% removal of the SFP is simulated. In addition, a theoretically sound index based on the Mercantilist Trade Re-strictiveness Index (MTRI) is developed that measures the overall trade effects of domestic support in a general equilibrium framework. The new index named “MTRI of domestic support payments” (MTRI-DS) enables the measurement of the trade restrictiveness of domestic sup-port payments over time and across countries. Analyses’ results show: • Strong impacts of the SFP on factor allocation and thus industry output, market prices, trade structure and welfare in EU member states. • Significant variations due to alterations in the assumptions underlying the SFP’s de-gree of decoupling. • A decrease in trade distortion caused by the implementation of decoupled support in the EU. Thus, the MTRI-DS provides an appealing measure for evaluating the effects of agricultural policy reforms by summarizing the changes in the composition of domestic support payments, and thus, it might be of particular use in the support of trade negotiations.
Ex-ante measurement of redistributive effects of agricultural policy in western Germany
(2014) Deppermann, Jens Andre; Grethe, Harald
In recent decades, agricultural support of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has increasingly shifted from market price support measures to budgetary payments. This development has made support more visible and has raised public attention to the distribution of support, which in turn increased political awareness of the topic. Simulation models are tools frequently used for the ex-ante analysis of policy reforms. In other scientific areas, e.g. poverty analysis or tax reform analysis, it is quite common to assess impacts of macroeconomic shocks on income distribution on a national scale by the application of behavioural ex-ante models and referring to the level of individual incomes. Similar tools for the measurement of impacts of sectoral or macroeconomic policies on the individual farm income level are less frequent for the agricultural sector and, apart from few exceptions, ex-ante studies of redistributive effects of agricultural policy are rare. Yet, in general, ex-ante policy impact analysis in the agricultural sector has a long tradition. The combination of models to jointly assess effects at different levels of aggregation and taking behavioural effects into account is very common. Most of the model chains, however, take farm groups or average farms into account rather than accounting for effects at the individual farm level. Some attempts have been made to combine macro or sectoral models with micro models, which incorporate the behaviour of individual farms. Such research, however, is often restricted to the analysis of certain types of farms. In general, ex-ante analyses of redistributive effects among individual farms on a supra-regional level in the sense of evaluating a counterfactual distribution of income with regard to a reference distribution of income including an assessment of progressivity or related concepts can hardly be found for the agricultural sector. Against this background, the main objective of this work is to develop a tool that is able to consistently assess impacts of agricultural policy on individual farm incomes, thereby building on existing modelling approaches and thus, taking behavioural effects into account for the ex-ante analysis of redistributive effects of agricultural policy. Subsequently, different liberalization scenarios are defined and a detailed analysis of redistributive effects is carried out for the western German agricultural sector by the application of methodologies borrowed from the field of tax progressivity analysis. Thereby, several contributions to the understanding of modelling inequality effects are made, methodologically as well as empirically. The modelling system consists of three layers. At the sectoral and the meso-level two previously developed large scale models are applied. The European Simulation Model (ESIM) is an agricultural sector model with a strong focus on the CAP. It depicts the world agricultural sector – though in different degrees of regional disaggregation – and quantifies effects of agricultural policy at the European and member state level. It is, however, unable to estimate intra-sectoral income changes at the farm level. The Farm Modelling Information System (FARMIS) is a more disaggregate model that depicts the German agricultural sector in great detail. It applies 628 homogenous farm groups and is used in the modelling chain to estimate impacts on the intra-sectoral distribution of income at the meso-level. The two models at the sectoral and meso-level are consistently linked via an iterative solution process. After convergence is achieved between ESIM and FARMIS, the integrated results are further processed in a micro model, estimating impacts at the individual farm level. The micro model has been developed for this study, is static in nature, and relies on the results of the meso-model. After changes in individual incomes are calculated as a first step by the modelling system for different scenarios, model results are analysed in a second step by the application of a methodology for the measurement of redistributive effects that was originally developed for the analysis of tax reforms. Based on the comparison and decomposition of relative and absolute Gini coefficients, detailed redistributive impacts of changes in agricultural policy are presented. For the analysis, scenario results for the year 2020 are evaluated relative to the income distribution of a reference scenario where the CAP is still in place in 2020. To account for different conceptual impacts of inequality analysis on results, the analysis is carried out at different aggregation levels, for different income classifications, and for income data generated in a static way in comparison to data generated by the modelling system. It can be stated that inequality effects are robust with regard to the conceptual differences tested for, at least in terms of the direction of inequality changes. All calculated liberalization scenarios lead to decreasing absolute income differences among western German farms in 2020 because high-income farms lose higher absolute amounts of money than small-income farms. Relative to their Baseline incomes, however, low-income farms tend to lose a higher share compared to high-income farms which leads to increasing relative inequality due to liberalization. Only one exemption from this pattern of results exists: if grouped results are disaggregated and total household income is considered instead of family farm income. In summary, this work provides an innovative combination and extension of different simulation models, which enables the ex-ante measurement of income changes for individual farms. This information in turn facilitates the measurement of redistributive effects in the agricultural sector taking behavioural effects into account.
Linkages between poverty and sustainable agricultural and rural development in the uplands of Southeast Asia
(2008) Zeller, Manfred; Beuchelt, Tina; Fischer, Isabel; Heidhues, Franz
Most of the upland areas of Southeast Asia are characterized by insufficient infrastructure, low productivity in smallholder crop and animal production, mounting environmental problems such as soil and forest degradation and loss of biodiversity, increasing population pressure, and widespread poverty, particular in rural areas. While some upland areas in South East Asia have been experiencing considerable progress during the past twenty years, others have stagnated or even declined with respect to economic, social and environmental objectives of development. The purpose of the paper is to describe major trends regarding sustainable development in the upland areas of selected countries in South East Asia, and review explanatory approaches for the observed trends based on case studies from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The conceptual framework for this paper builds on the critical triangle of sustainable rural development. Here, equity or poverty alleviation, economic growth, and the protection of the environment are the three major policy objectives. We further distinguish three explanatory approaches for land use change and agricultural and rural development. Apart from the market approach and the population approach, we suggest that future studies should focus more on governance issues as a major driving force of land use change. The governance approach appears particularly relevant for upland areas which are often politically and institutionally marginalized. The paper begins with a review of definitions of sustainability, and proceeds with a conceptual analysis of the two-way linkages between poverty and the environment, and poverty and economic growth in rural areas. This is followed by empirical findings from research on agriculture and forestry as the major land uses in upland areas of selected South East Asian countries. Based on the results of different case studies from Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia, we seek to contrast stories of relative success with those of failure. The paper concludes with implications for rural and agricultural development policies, and suggests future areas of research.
Nachhaltiger Anbau von Bioenergie : eine ökonomisch-ökologische Analyse für die Landwirtschaft in Baden-Württemberg
(2012) Konold, Angelika; Zeddies, Jürgen
The aim of this thesis is on the one hand to estimate the potential of energy crop production for CO2-sequestration in Baden-Württemberg. On the other hand the focus lies on the interactions that arise from the implementation of optimized na-ture conservation measures with the land management on regional level. For this the existing economic-ecological regional model EFEM (Economic Farm Emission Model), based on linear programming, is further developed. The calculations are made on farm level and are extrapolated on regional level. The model is calibrated on the database for the years 2001-2005 and the so modeled Reference_2003 than is projected to the year 2015 (BAU_2015), this to evaluate the model results without the influence of the great changes in agricultural policy in the last years. Based on the modeled situation for the year 2015 further scenarios are defined that differ in the expansion of energy cropping and nature conservation measures. In the ?biomass scenarios? only the legal nature requirements have to be met while in the corresponding ?conservation scenarios? restrictions that are optimal from a nature conservation point of view, must be considered. The sensitivity analyses for selected parameters proved that the model results have sufficient stability to make reliable statements about synergy effects and conflicts between the expansion of energy crop cultivation and requirements for natural conservation. Altogether it could be shown that with the used model approach interactions be-tween the cultivation of energy crops and nature conservation are represented sufficiently and the objectives of energy and climate policy are compatible.
Nachwachsende Rohstoffe : entwicklungspolitisch einmal anders gedacht
(2011) Zeller, Manfred; Breuer, Thomas; Henckes, Christian; Loos, Tim K.
Steigende Agrarpreise, und damit steigende Nahrungsmittelpreise, beleben die Diskussion über die Notwendigkeit der ?Non-Food?-Nutzung (Anbau von Energiepflanzen, aber auch Pflanzen für die stoffliche Nutzung, z.B. Holz oder Kautschuk) von Agrarrohstoffen. Dieses Diskussionspapier betrachtet die allgemeinen Brennpunkte der Debatte und erörtert speziell die Möglichkeiten von Biotreibstoffen als Triebkraft für Investitionen in Infrastruktur und Marktzugang im ländlichen Raum und als Treiber der Nachhaltigkeitsdiskussion im Agrarsektor der Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer. Auf lange Sicht ist die konkurrierende Nutzung von Land für Energie- und Nahrungsmittelpflanzen differenziert zu betrachten. Kurz- bis mittelfristig jedoch ist die energetische und stoffliche Nutzung von Agrarprodukten eine alternative Markt- und damit auch Einkommensmöglichkeit für die Landwirtschaft. In den Industrieländern bietet der Anbau von nachwachsenden Rohstoffen die Möglichkeit, Überschussproduktionen einzudämmen und Exportsubventionen abzubauen. Damit wird auch deren preissenkender Einfluss auf den Weltmarkt abgebaut. In den Entwicklungsländern könnten sich dadurch Produktionsanreize im Agrarsektor ergeben, die, ausgelöst durch landwirtschaftliche- und außerlandwirtschaftliche Beschäftigungseffekte, eine Armutsreduktion induzieren könnten. Zusätzlich besteht die Möglichkeit, den lokalen Energiebedarf mit ökologisch nachhaltigen Ressourcen zu unterstützen und damit den Kleinbauern neben dem Marktzugang auch die Möglichkeit zur lokalen Veredelung zu bieten. Allerdings würde sich die Situation für Erzeuger in Entwicklungsländern noch zusätzlich verbessern, wenn Industrieländer nicht die Erzeugung von nachwachsenden Rohstoffen (NawaRo) subventionieren, sondern auf tarifäre und nichttarifäre Importbarrieren für Agrarprodukte, inklusive der nachwachsenden Rohstoffe, verzichten würden. Im Zusammenhang mit der Förderung von nachwachsenden Rohstoffen stellen sich der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit verschiedene Herausforderungen. Um eine breitenwirksame Armutsminderung zu erzielen, muss vor allem die kleinbäuerliche Landwirtschaft unterstützt werden. Hierzu sollten Ansätze verfolgt werden, in denen die bäuerlichen Produktionssysteme, wegen ihrer Beschäftigungseffekte, mit agro-industriellen Verarbeitungsmöglichkeiten kombiniert werden. In diesem Zusammenhang besteht die Notwendigkeit und die Möglichkeit, die sozialen (inkl. breitenwirksames Wachstum) und ökologischen (Erhalt und Förderung der natürlichen Ressouren) Bedingungen der Produktion aller Agrarrohstoffe nachhaltig zu gestalten.
Ein Nichtlineares Prozessanalytisches Agrarsektormodell für das Einzugsgebiet der Oberen Donau
(2005) Winter, Thomas; Dabbert, Stephan
This dissertation describes a regionalised non-linear agricultural sector model for the upper danube catchment area. The model is used for simulating and forecasting the impacts of different policies measures and of climate change on farming. The most important task of this model is to fit as a part into the decision-support-system Glowa-Danubia. The main idea of the decision-support-system is, that the impact of the Global-climate change to the water on the upper danubia basin can be shown. At first the interactions between agriculture and water are defined. One of the results is that agriculture is an economic sector, which has an important influence on the water-household of the landscape. Many agricultural activities, e.g. tillage, fertilisation, plant-protection have a direct or indirect impact on the waterhousehold. Of course there are some conflicts with other users of the water resource. In consequence a lot of laws guarantee the safety of the water resources. The farmers are bound by law to practice the so called ?good agricultural practice?. Another possibility for policy to influence farmers is that farmers can take part in agri-environmental programs. In the second chapter the connections between the agricultural sector model and the other models are defined. A division of the agricultural sector model into three main modules is necessary, that the dates can be transferred automatically. The three modules of the agriculture sector model can be overwritten with data resources, model equations and result tables. A process-analytical optimisation model was used, because with this methodological approach the use of fertiliser and other farm inputs and the level of production can be simulated. In the plant production 19 different crop production activities with two different intensities were defined. The production level of each crop was defined by using expert interviews with a Probit-Model. The Probit-Model calculates independ of the ?Landwirtschaftliche Vergleichszahl? (a relative number, which indicates the agronomy quality of soils) in order to define the extent of both intensities. In the animal production 15 different production systems are defined. The constraints and the calibration of the non-linear gross margin function are discussed after the definition of the production activities. Some constraints, for example the crop rotation constraint, are not necessary in the non-linear model. The reference situation is the year 1995. The first simulation shows the results for the year 1999. In the Ex-post-analysis from this year both different Howitt-methods, the cost side specification and the yield side specification of the non-linear gross margin function, get compared. Both methods calculate nearly the same results, the forecast of the production activity levels and the gross margins are nearly the same. For the total research area both methods either over- or underestimate the production activity levels for the same crop. If the forecast results are compared by district the forecasting accuracies were different. A system, that one method is better than the other method, can not be found. For the simulation of the scenarios the cost side specification was used. In the first scenario the year 2008 under the conditions of the agenda 2000 was calculated. The production levels are nearly the same as in the reverence year. The consequences of the mid term review of the European Commission are forecasted in the two other scenarios. The conditions under mid term review have a big impact on agriculture, because of the decoupling of the agricultural subsidies from the products. In both scenarios, the cattle meat production decreases. The same results can be shown with the reduction of silo maize and of grassland. On the other side set aside arises in all districts. Positive for the water resources are the reduction of nitrogen load from organic manure. One of the main conclusions is that the positive quadratic programming is an alternative to the linear models for analysis of farms by district level. Of course the aggregation mistake from the aggregation of different farm types to one big district farm can not be carried out. But the positive aspects of the PQP, which are described in literature, can be permitted. A further research theme, which is not answered in this thesis is the combination of the non-linear gross margin with useful econometric methods.
Prozess der Transformation der Landwirtschaft Usbekistans und Probleme bei der Umstrukturierung der landwirtschaftlichen Betriebe
(2002) Nazarkulov, Umidjan Rakhimjanovich; Zeddies, Jürgen
Privatization of agricultural enterprises in former soviet countries has led to changes in production structure, methods of production and management of enterprises. Hence, the main objective of this dissertation is, at first, analysis of development of the agrarian sector and agricultural enterprises on the example of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and the identification of their weaknesses and problems. Furthermore aspects of management and marketing are considered and recommendations on improving the strategy of optimization the production process, which will serve as a basis for decision-making in the appropriate organizations. The structural changes in typical farms of 3 regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan under different frame conditions are analyzed using a linear programming model. The results of these optimization calculations are leading to the following requirements: - Change of the production structure and reduction of the state influence and governmental control; - Cancellation of fixed state prices of cotton and wheat with a simultaneous increase of water taxes; - Reduction of labour input and increase of wages with the purpose of improving the motivation and efficiency of labour; - Extension of the area of family farms. According to the model calculations a liberalisation of agricultural markets would lead to the following consequences for farm enterprises and agricultural production: - A substantial reduction of cotton production will lead to a wider crop rotation and better soil fertility; - The total gross margins of the farm enterprises will increase due to an optimization of production and marketing structure; - If the fixed producer prices for wheat and cotton will be eliminated, wheat production would increase significantly; - Depending on the region animal stocks will show a different development pattern. While in one region the big farms will reduce their livestock production, in two other regions they will be increased. Family farms tend to reduce the livestock number due to scarcity of land resources; - Farm incomes can be increased by reducing the number of workers; simultaneously increasing wages and introducing better labour management practices thus contributing to higher motivation and business success; - Profits should be invested in new machinery and equipment in order to maintain adequate levels of production; - Private family farms show a relatively high labour capacity and would be able to increase their farm land. Therefore liberalization of land market is necessary; - For family farms a liberalization of producer prices will lead to similar changes in production and marketing structures as for big farm enterprises. In conclusion it can be recommended to state institutions to reduce their influence on the operational decisions of farmers. The main objective of agricultural policy in future should be improvement of frame conditions for trade, liberalization of markets, effective support to structural changes and creation of a system of social support to farmers.
The role of informal institutions in agricultural development : case studies from Kenya, Pakistan and Malawi
(2017) Aberman, Noora-Lisa; Birner, Regina
Why have so many countries lagged behind in terms of agricultural development, structural transformation and poverty alleviation? This thesis is based on the proposition that a lack of attention to institutions and governance is partly responsible for the limited success in meeting food security and development goals in many developing countries, in spite of significant investments in agricultural development. In particular, the interplay between formal and informal intuitions has not been thoroughly explored, in part because this interplay is not well captured in the quantitative analytical approaches that dominate the literature on agricultural development. Informal and non-market institutions play an important role especially in early phases of agricultural development. Therefore, a better understanding of informal institutions and their interaction with formal institutions is expected to provide valuable insights on how to facilitate agricultural development more effectively and to better use its potential to promote food security, and poverty reduction. Institutions can be defined as the socially constructed formal and informal rules that constrain human behaviour and provide the framework of incentives that shapes economic, social and political life. In the literature on agricultural development, institutional analysis typically builds on the theory of neoclassical economics and draws on its analytical tools, but it appears useful to explore theoretical approaches developed in other branches of the social sciences and to apply their methodological approaches to analyse the role of institutions in agricultural development. Qualitative methods are particularly promising to provide new insights into the role of institutions in agricultural development, in particular with regard to informal institutions. The main objective of this thesis is the development and application of novel methodological approaches to analysing the interplay of informal and formal institutions in agricultural development. The thesis is based on four case studies conducted in three developing countries: Malawi, Pakistan and Kenya. The case studies deal with three selected themes of institutional development in agriculture, where the interplay of formal and informal institutions is particular important. Two themes relate to specific sub-sectors of agriculture: institutions for managing irrigation systems and institutions that facilitate agricultural exports. The third theme is cross-cutting and addresses the question how gender equity can be promoted in institutions that matter for agricultural development. Considering that institutions are nested, the case studies cover different levels, including the household, farmer group, local government and national government level. Together the case studies provide insights on how institutional analysis—with an emphasis on social institutions, informal rules, perceptions, and norms—affect agricultural development initiatives. The case studies make use of methodological approaches that are relatively novel in the field of agricultural development studies and thus serve to broaden the toolkit of methods for institutional analysis. These methods include two versions of a participatory mapping tool called Net-Map and Process Net-Map. As a third approach, qualitative interviews with the inclusion of tactile power mapping exercises have been applied. As the case studies cover different levels, the data collection methods have been applied with a wide range of participants that had highly diverse social and educational backgrounds, ranging from national-level policy actors to farmers residing in remote areas. Epistemologically, these methods support a social constructionist research approach, wherein the informal and socially constructed aspects of agricultural policy and governance can be assessed. Four distinct case studies are presented here, from Kenya, Pakistan and Malawi. Taken together, the case studies show that in a developing country context, the informal rules (described as “rules-in-play”), which are based on social norms, often play a more significant role in guiding the behaviour of economic actors than the formal rules and regulations of the state. Thus, the consideration of social norms is critical when devising policy reform strategies, devolution processes, and addressing corruption. The studies identified the following factors, which should be considered when undertaking policy development or policy reform: a) the capacity of the government to enforce rules and laws; b) social norms that determine the extent to which rules-are followed; and c) the impact of additional rules that aim to promote compliance on transaction costs. The case studies also provide insights on the role of that informal institutions play with regard to gender, power and community groups. The findings indicate that gender norms are slowly changing even in the remote area of Kenya where the case studies were conducted, which is confirmed by other empirical work. The findings indicate that such change is very slow due to internal societal pressures against it. However, a better understanding of when and how informal institutions are changing provides entry points for action. The studies indicate that there is a potential for community groups to serve as a parallel institution to that of the home, governed by constitutions and by-laws, that do enable women to push the boundaries of community gender norms, although both are embedded in the same community. And although gendered participation in groups is mixed, there are drivers that can be supported to flourish by development partners and government.
Two worlds in agricultural policy making in Africa? Case studies from Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and Uganda
(2016) Mockshell, Jonathan; Birner, Regina
There has been a renewed interest among donors and domestic policy makers in promoting agricultural development in Africa. Such renewed interest is evident in initiatives, such as the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition, and TerrAfrica. Yet, the choice of policy instruments that are most suitable to promote agricultural development in Africa remains subject to a contested debate. The main objective of this cumulative thesis is to analyze the role that the policy beliefs of different actors play in determining policy choices and policy implementation, a topic that has been largely neglected in the agricultural economics and political science literature on the political economy of agricultural policies in Africa. While some policy actors argue that agricultural development requires strong state support, others criticize state-focused instruments and favor market-oriented strategies. Examples of such unresolved debates regarding the role of the state versus the private sector include controversies about input subsidies, import taxes, price stabilization, and buffer stock programs. On the ground, one can observe that African governments implement input subsidy programs and reverse the abolishment of parastatal organizations, in spite of the prevailing critique of such policy instruments by some donor organizations. As the literature reviews included in this thesis show, the dominant explanations in the agricultural economics literature for the choice of such agricultural policies have mainly been based on the rational choice paradigm, such as interest group theories and voter-politician models. Explanations in the political science literature have focused on the role of politician’s self- interest in the form of patronage. Neither of these strands of literature has paid attention to the role of policy beliefs that different actors have and the influence of such beliefs on policy choices. The main rationale for this thesis is the proposition that a narrow focus on self-interest in the prevailing explanations of agricultural policy choices in Africa limits their value. This is especially the case, if the goal of policy research is to identify strategies on how long-standing controversies can be resolved with a view to moving towards more effective policy implementation. This thesis is based on case studies conducted in four countries: Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Uganda. The countries were selected because they are similar in the following aspects: They are largely agrarian-based, they implemented Structural Adjustment Programs in the 1980s, and they moved towards increasing support to agriculture in recent years. However, they differ in important characteristics, especially regarding the nature of their political system. These characteristics make them good case study examples for analyzing contested agricultural policy debates. By combining different types of case studies, the thesis covers the entire spectrum from policy formulation to policy implementation. The thesis begins with an introduction, which presents the rationale for the study, provides background information on the agricultural policy context in the four case study countries, and reviews the relevant literature in the fields of agricultural economics and political science. After the introduction, the thesis presents two case studies that deal with policy formulation. They focus on the policy discourse in three of the four case study countries, namely, Senegal, Ghana, and Uganda. In these case studies, the roles of policy discourses and policy beliefs in the policy process are examined. The case studies combine the Advocacy Coalition Framework with discourse analysis and narrative policy analysis to identify the predominant policy beliefs of different coalitions of actors. Based on interviews with a wide range of policy-makers and stakeholders, two main coalitions were identified in each country. In the case study of Ghana and Uganda, these coalitions were labeled “donor discourse coalition” and “domestic discourse coalition.” In Senegal, the labels “agricultural support coalition” and “agricultural support critique coalition” were used. As the cluster analysis showed, the donor coalition and the agricultural support critique coalition mostly comprise international financial institutions, the finance ministry, and academia. Members from the agricultural ministry, Parliament, political parties, and civil society groups mostly form the domestic coalition and the agricultural support coalition. The study finds strikingly similar patterns of policy beliefs across the three case study countries. Donors and domestic policy makers held fundamentally different policy beliefs regarding the question: What does it take to develop smallholder agriculture? While domestic policy actors tend to believe that transforming smallholder agriculture requires public intervention to provide modern inputs at subsidized rates, members of the donor coalition tend to believe that these interventions are market distorting and only motivated by political patronage. The narrative policy analysis of the discourses suggests that the agricultural support narrative has a convincing story-line with a clear beginning (low productivity caused by lack of inputs), middle (providing subsidized inputs), and end (increased productivity). In contrast, the agricultural support critique is mostly presented in the form of a non-story (focusing on what should not be done without providing a convincing alternative story-line of what should be done). Moving from policy formulation to decision-making on policy adoption, the third case study examines how divergent policy beliefs are translated into policy programs. The analysis focuses on two major agricultural programs in Ghana: the Block Farms Program and the agricultural investment program developed under CAADP, called Medium Term Agriculture Sector Investment Plan (METASIP). A participatory mapping of the process leading to the policy programs (called Process Net-Map) was combined with in-depth interviews conducted with policy experts. The empirical results reveal two divergent policy processes: (1) The METASIP policy process that involved broad stakeholder consultation, but where donors were considered the most influential policy actors in the process. (2) The policy process leading to the Block Farms Program. In contrast to the METASIP process, donors did not feature as policy actors in this policy process, which was also less consultative. Domestic policy makers, including the ruling political party, Parliament, and the president, played key roles in this policy process. A fundamental difference between the two programs relates to the policy orientation: The Block Farms Program takes a public sector approach, while METASIP stresses private sector participation in agricultural service provision. Thus, this case study indicates that basic differences in policy beliefs between donors and domestic policy makers are translated into different policy programs through parallel policy processes, which are not connected to each other. Therefore, the case study suggests that “two worlds” (donors and domestic policy makers) exist not only with regard to policy beliefs, but also with regard to policy processes and the resulting policy choices. After having covered policy formulation and policy adoption, the last two case studies deal with policy implementation. They focus on animal health services, because this is a policy field where the case study countries had already implemented policy reforms during the structural adjustment period. These reforms largely followed donor prescriptions to reduce government involvement and promote privatization. The two case studies aimed to analyze the effects of these reforms in relation to prevailing policy beliefs regarding the potential positive and negative effects of privatization. Data for the two case studies were collected through surveys of livestock keepers in a marginal livestock production area in the northern region of Ghana and in a high-potential dairy production area in Kenya. Key informant interviews with livestock policy experts were also conducted in Ghana. The analysis showed that the policy reform of liberalization introduced new players into the animal health service delivery systems. A multinomial logit model was applied to determine the factors that influence households’ choice of service providers. In Ghana, a low potential region (semi-arid, remote) was examined, and the analysis revealed that in this region government para-vets were preferred to community animal health workers and private para- vets. This choice was attributed to the relatively low performance of the community animal health workers, resulting from their limited training. In areas with few or no government para-vets, farmers resorted to self-treatment or to selling sick animals for human consumption, which has undesirable health implications. In Kenya, a high-potential area with intensive dairy production was examined. The results expectedly suggest that service delivery was generally better than in Ghana, as a private service provider market had indeed emerged. In this respect, the experience corresponded to the policy beliefs of those policy actors who had pursued this reform. However, the study found that poorer framers in these areas also face challenges in accessing qualified service providers. Thus, the findings indicate that privatization of livestock services had problematic results for farmers in marginal areas, as well as for poor farmers in high-potential areas. These experiences in the liberalization of the livestock sector may be one contributing factor to why domestic policy makers did not change their policy beliefs regarding the need for government intervention in support of smallholder farming. The final two chapters of the thesis discuss the findings of the five case studies in a cross-cutting perspective and derive implications from for policy processes that aim at developing smallholder agriculture in Africa. As the case studies show, the policy beliefs of donors and domestic policy makers are not easily reconciled, especially since there is a tendency among policy actors on both sides to have a positive self-representation and a negative other representation, which can easily lead to “blame games”. What seems rather problematic for bridging the gap between the “two worlds” is the view identified in the donor discourse that domestic policy makers only pursue government-focused programs as a strategy to stay in political power or to create opportunities for corruption. There would be no contradiction in accepting that domestic policy makers genuinely believe in the need for better physical access of smallholders to inputs, while acknowledging that such instruments have political advantages as well. The study suggests that if donors could accept genuine concerns of domestic policy makers, it would be easier to engage in a more productive policy dialogue, such as on how to make input-subsidy programs more effective or how to address service needs of poor livestock keepers. Based on the proposition that a more consensus-oriented approach will ultimately lead to more effective agricultural policies, the study concludes that it is critical to find strategies to promote such a dialogue between donor coalitions and domestic coalitions. Such strategies may aim at engaging policy actors through deliberation, building new coalitions, promoting policy-oriented learning, and involving policy brokers to find new alternative solutions to reach a consensus. Considering the similarities found across the four case study countries, the study also concludes that the findings are relevant for other African countries.