Institut für Landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre

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Rentabilität und Risiko typischer Ackerbaubetriebe in der Russischen Föderation
(2009) Breunig, Peter; Zeddies, Jürgen
Consistent world population growth, changing diets in emerging markets and the growing impact of biofuels led to considerable price increases for agricultural commodities since 2006, in particular for grains and oilseeds. Among other things this results in a growing interest of capital investors in investments in agricultural companies. Capital investments from outside the agricultural sector play ? especially in Russia ? a major role, due to the farm structure and the predominantly capital-oriented farm businesses. Until now, it is not yet clear, how these investments perform in comparison to the capital market regarding risk and return, which is critical for the future volume and sustainability of these investments. Therefore, the aim of this work is to analyze risk and return of typical arable farms in selected regions of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2007 and make forecasts from 2008 to 2015. Additionally, the risk-return-performance of the analyzed farms is compared to a russian stock market index. This allows for the examination of the relative excellence based on risk and return among the typical farms and in comparison to the russian capital market. The evaluation of investments in arable farms in the Russian Federation based on risk and return analysis is done by two methods. The first method calculates performance ratios that are based on risk and return values of each typical farm. This is done by analyzing and forecasting financial models of the typical farms, which are based on farm surveys in the relevant regions. In total, eight typical farms in four regions (Voronesh, Stavropol, Samara and Omsk) of the Russian Federation are modeled. For the analysis of historic risk and return values, historic price and yield data from official statistics are integrated into the farm models and the relevant performance ratios are thus calculated. Future performance, price and yield data and their volatility is forecasted by using mathematical methods and published forecasts. The performance ratios of each typical farm are subsequently compared to the russian stock market index MICEX. The second method to evaluate investments in arable farms in the Russian Federation is based on the "Capital Asset Pricing Model". With this model, the return that agricultural companies in Russia have to achieve to have the same risk-return-performance as the Russian stock market can be calculated. This is done by analyzing the movement of applicable stocks relative to the total Russian stock market. Additionally investments in arable land are analyzed in the context of investments in arable farms. The results of the thesis show that in the historical period (2000 to 2007) only the typical farms in the Stavropol region are able to exceed the performance of the Russian stock market index. In the forecast period (2008 to 2015) one typical farm in the Voronesh region as well as the typical farms in the Stavropol region are expected to outperform the russian stock market. Furthermore, it can be shown that the arable farms in Samara and Omsk have a considerably lower risk-return-performance compared to the other typical farms in the west and southwest of Russia. The results validate the strong increase in investments in arable farms in the west and southwest of Russia in recent years. Moreover it is assumed that in the Samara and Omsk region similar investment volumes like in the western regions of Russia cannot be expected.

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