Fakultät Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften

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Die Fakultät vereint Forschung und moderne Lehre nach internationalen Standards. Das Hohenheimer Modell verzahnt dabei betriebs- und volkswirtschaftliche, sozial- und rechtswissenschaftliche Aspekte.

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A behavioral finance approach to explain the price momentum effect
(2009) Prothmann, Felix; Burghof, Hans-Peter
The research topic of my thesis is the stock price momentum effect which states that stocks with high returns over the past 3 to 12 months continue to outperform stocks with a poor past performance within the next 3 to 12 months. My work is structured into three main parts. The first one gives an overview about the present stand of the literature. It becomes clear that the profitability of momentum strategies is documented in many studies, for different samples and for different periods. In the search for an explanation for the profitability of momentum strategies, the literature has not come to a consensus: One the one hand, according to the rational-based approach,momentum profits represent a compensation for risk and is consistent with the EMH. On the other hand, the behavioral finance theories attempts to explain the existence of the momentum effect with a non-rational behavior of at least some investors. The second and the third part of my thesis are closely linked and examine the behavioralexplanation approach that stock price momentum can be explained by the anchoring bias ? a specific form of non-rational behavior. It states that investors orientate too much on a reference point when forming estimates. This idea goes back to George and Hwang (2004) documenting that the momentum effect can be explained by profits to the 52-week high strategy, which itself is assumed to be driven by the anchoring bias. Based on this theory, the null hypothesis of both parts of my thesis states: Stock price momentum cannot be explained by anchoring. This investigation supports anchoring as the explanation of the momentum effect.
A computational study on the effects of the organizational structures on the risk of different types of banking groups
(2023) Jamshidisafari, Saeed; Burghof, Hans-Peter
In this dissertation, two theoretical models are used to compare centralized and decentralized banking structures. In the first approach, the problem for both banks is to choose an expansive or restrictive credit policy without having complete knowledge of the state of the overall and local economies. Observing and appraising verifiable information (hard information) is the benefit of the centralized banks, whereas considering unverifiable information (soft information) about the local economies, so-called soft signals, is the important asset of the decentralized banks. To compare two banking systems, the risk-return trade-off method is used to determine which type of banking system might have better performance. Although the overestimation of the local economy may have a negative impact, this soft signal has a quite positive impact on risk measures in general. As a result, decentralized bank managers are better at detecting bad loans in their banks. In addition, because small banks have less bureaucracy, the borrower can obtain credit more effortlessly and swiftly. In the second approach, a theoretical bank run model based on Chari and Jagannathan (1988) is developed by implementing a cheap talk game to compare banking structures during bank shocks when managers communicate strategically with depositors to prevent non-efficient bank runs. These two banks behaved considerably differently in the local economy, and this issue is directly tied to regional culture. The limitation of punishment in the legal system incentivizes the management system in centralized banks at some point to be cunning. Consequently, based on the modified model, the higher the punishment or the lower the salary, the less likely the manager is to be persuaded to lie. On the other hand, in small banks, trust and soft information between bank management and depositors protect inefficient bank runs. A decentralized banking system can improve the financial systems credibility by mitigating undesirable shocks during times of crisis. Hence, having decentralized banks in the banking structure increases the depositors’ welfare.
A data-driven procedure to determine the bunching window : an application to the Netherlands
(2016) Bosch, Nicole; Dekker, Vincent; Strohmaier, Kristina
This paper presents new empirical evidence on taxpayers responsiveness to taxation by estimating the compensated elasticity of taxable income with respect to the net-of-tax rate in the Netherlands. Applying the bunching approach introduced by Saez (2010), we find small, but clear evidence of bunching behaviour at the thresholds of the Dutch tax schedule with a precise estimated elasticity of 0.023 at the upper threshold. In line with the literature, we find much larger estimates for women and self-employed individuals, but we can also identify significant bunching behaviour for wage employed individuals which we can attribute to tax deductions for couples. We add to the bunching literature by proposing to rely on the information criteria to determine the counterfactual model, as well as developing an intuitive, data-driven procedure to determine the bunching window.
A direct test of socially desirable responding in contingent valuation interviews
(2011) Börger, Tobias
A hybrid model of electronic negotiation : integration of negotiation support and automated negotiation models
(2008) Rehman, Moez ur; Schoop, Mareike
Electronic business negotiations are enabled by different electronic negotiation models: automated negotiation models for software agents, negotiation support models for human negotiators, and auction models for both. To date, there is no electronic negotiation model that enables bilateral multi-issue negotiations between a human negotiator and a negotiation agent?an important task in electronic negotiation research. In this thesis, a model is presented that integrates the automated negotiation model and the negotiation support model. The resulting hybrid negotiation model paves the way for human-agent business negotiations. The integration of two models is realised at the levels of negotiation process, communication support and decision making. To this end, the negotiation design, negotiation process, negotiation decision making, and negotiation communication in negotiation support systems (NSSs) and agent negotiation systems (ANSs) are studied and analysed. The analyses on these points help in strengthening the motivation behind hybrid negotiation model and setting aims for the integration of an NSS and an ANS in hybrid negotiation model. We mainly propose a human-agent negotiation design, negotiation process protocols to support the design, a hybrid communication model for human-agent interaction, an agent decision-making model for negotiation with human, and a component for interoperability between NSS and ANS. The agent decision-making model is composed of heuristic and argumentation-based negotiation techniques. It is proposed after analysing different automated negotiation models for different human negotiation strategies. The proposed communication model supports human negotiator and negotiation agent to understand and process negotiation messages from each other. This communication model consists of negotiation ontology, a wrapper agent, and a proper selection of an agent communication language (ACL) and a content language. The wrapper agent plays a role for interoperability between agent system and NSS by providing a communication interface along with the negotiation ontology. The negotiation ontology, ACL and agent content language make the communication model of negotiation agent in ANS. The proposed hybrid model is realised by integrating an ANS into NSS Negoisst. The research aim is to show that a hybrid negotiation system, composed of two heterogeneous negotiation models, can enable human-agent multi-issue integrative negotiations.
A monetary-fiscal theory of prices in modern DSGE models
(2018) Schröder, Christian Philipp; Spahn, Peter
Starting with the Eurozone crisis in 2010, fiscal variables such as the government budget position and public debt of certain member countries as well as the design of the European Monetary Union as a whole came under close scrutiny again. Furthermore, as a consequence of the global financial crisis, the economic profession faced accusations that, using the established ‘workhorse models,’ it was not able to provide answers to the pertinent questions of the time. From the perspective of economic theory, two main issues can be outlined against this background: (1) How do the so-called DSGE (dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium) models work which form a quasi-consensus in practice, research, and teaching nowadays? This relates especially to determinacy, that is, the mathematical property of being able to draw unique conclusions from a given set of assumptions. (2) What roles do the main fields of macroeconomic policy---fiscal and monetary policy---play in this? The exposition of these items is carried out within a formally consistent theoretical model which adheres to common standards and strikes a balance between staying general enough for a broad range of approaches and being sufficiently specific to yield tangible results. Following a brief introduction, Chapter 2 presents a microfounded (‘baseline’) general-equilibrium model that acts as a foundation for subsequent analysis. The only substantial exception is the excursus in Chapter 3. It deals with interactions between the entities of the consolidated government sector, namely the treasury and the central bank, and in doing so also touches on traditional models which cannot be reconciled entirely with modern theory. One of the main aspects is the “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic” that describes the long-standing explanation for fiscally induced inflation. The fourth chapter then takes up the baseline model and ‘closes’ it by defining monetary as well as fiscal policy, both of which can be active (that is, dominant) or passive. Resulting from this classification are two stable macroeconomic regimes (monetary or fiscal dominance) plus two undesirable outcomes (explosive instability or indeterminacy of central model variables). Monetary dominance is tantamount to the prevailing world view—central banks can independently pursue a measure of price stability while governments have to follow a sustainable (Ricardian) fiscal policy—whereas fiscal dominance gives rise to a “fiscal theory of the price level” in which the treasury sets budget surpluses without regard for other variables and monetary policy can be an implicit accomplice at most. This latter regime ultimately puts price stability into the hands of the treasury. Initially, the only public liability is debt (there is no money at this stage); however, the is model is able to determine unique price levels in the stable regimes. Chapter 5 introduces several isolated complications to the model described so far. One is the role of money, especially in the fiscalist model variant; it shows that the main results remain unchanged if monetary policy is conducted via money-supply instead of interest-rate policy. Further considerations are the zero lower bound on interest rates (in a graphic analysis) as well as limits to public-sector liabilities. Subsequently, Chapter 6 applies the baseline model of Chapter 2 to the open economy—more precisely, a monetary union consisting of two countries. Since monetary policy is supranational here, outcomes crucially depend on national fiscal policies. While the baseline model assumes flexible prices, Chapter 7 adds the considerable complication of nominally rigid prices. A mostly ‘plain-vanilla’ New-Keynesian model emerges which, following common practice, is then linearized and simulated in Matlab/Dynare. At the core of the analysis lie the two stable regimes carved out in Chapter 4. The central implications of the monetary-fiscal theory derived so far are adjusted gradually, but remain in place generally. Towards the end, the thesis highlights empirical issues (verifiability of the regimes, historical case studies). Finally, the results obtained beforehand culminate in a comprehensive discussion of the monetary-fiscal theory, including a distinction from traditional approaches. Chapter 10 concludes.
A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework : the expanded reproduction system
(2015) Jun, Bogang; Kim, Tai-Yoo
This study aims to introduce a new analytical macroeconomic framework, the expanded reproduction system, that combines the accumulated wisdom of several contemporary economic models while also compensating for their shortcomings. This new framework may be used to study macroeconomic phenomena from both the supply and demand side over a number of different time intervals. Furthermore, as we account for both new product and productivity innovations, we are able to account for both qualitative and quantitative developments within the economy.
A review of spatial econometric models for count data
(2017) Glaser, Stephanie
Despite the increasing availability of spatial count data in research areas like technology spillovers, patenting activities, insurance payments, and crime forecasting, specialized models for analysing such data have received little attention in econometric literature so far. The few existing approaches can be broadly classified into observation-driven models, where the random spatial effects enter the moments of the dependent variable directly, and parameterdriven models, where the random spatial effects are unobservable and induced via a latent process. Moreover, within these groups the modelling approaches (and therefore the interpretation) of spatial effects are quite heterogeneous, stemming in part from the nonlinear structure of count data models. The purpose of this survey is to compare and contrast the various approaches for econometric modelling of spatial counts discussed in the literature.
A software for corporate entrepreneurship? The role of organizational culture for stimulating entrepreneurial orientation in family firms
(2019) Arz, Christopher; Kuckertz, Andreas
This doctoral thesis comprises three empirical studies which together seek to shed light upon the question of which and how specific manifestations of organizational culture (OC) are able to support entrepreneurial behaviors and activities in established organizations (corporate entrepreneurship; CE). As a whole, this thesis addresses a variety of research questions, relying on different methodological approaches and data sets. More specifically, I use both original and secondary data, and I draw on qualitative, interpretive as well as quantitative, positivist research design. The specific objectives, concepts, and methods of the studies are guided by the two overarching research questions of this thesis: 1) What are the dominant cultural patterns of family firms that create an organizational environment where corporate entrepreneurship flourishes? 2) How exactly do these cultural patterns operate and interact in the process of stimulating corporate entrepreneurship? The first study titled “Mechanisms of Organizational Culture for Fostering Corporate Entrepreneurship: A Systematic Review and Research Agenda” provides a broad overview of the current body of knowledge on the OC-CE relationship and synthesizes generic OC mechanisms supportive of CE into an explicit framework. Adopting the method of structured literature review and realist synthesis, it analyzes 46 empirical and conceptual papers published in peer-reviewed journals and strives to make sense of the diverse, and partly conflicting, theoretical predictions and empirical findings which currently characterize the field. To accomplish that, the study integrates eight generic OC dimensions and two basic layers of culture to enable CE-supportive cultural mechanisms to be synthesized into a clear matrix. Doing so allows for more a fine-grained understanding of how OC may create an environment where CE flourishes. Based on the synthesis, research avenues are identified to encourage future work on the topic. The second study titled “Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap: A Multi-Layer Culture Framework for Understanding Entrepreneurial Orientation in Family Firms” responds to the enduring unanswered call for qualitative research on the topic of Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) that is located within an interpretivist-oriented philosophy. Employing an interpretivist single case study design, the study seeks to elaborate the theory of EO in family firms by delivering a rich and deeply contextualized understanding of the business-level mechanisms that operate between family-level values (micro level) and firm-level EO (macro level) in a second-generation German family firm. Specifically, it adopts a multi-layer theory of culture as interpretive framework to develop a grounded model that cuts across analytical levels of family and business. The illustration of the data, based on a qualitative content analysis of both archival data and ethnographic interview data, shows how the unique cultural patterns of the firm operate as social mechanisms to stimulate EO. Specifically, family-level values of altruism and preservation have been found to prepare the ground for an OC characterized by long-term- and involvement-oriented organizational values as well as psychological safety and empowerment climates. Eventually, these climates represent the most salient cultural layer and effectively support the firm’s competitive orientation toward corporate entrepreneurship. Finally, the third study of this thesis titled “Stimulating Entrepreneurial Orientation in Family Firms: A Multi-Layer Culture Model” takes a more technical (positivist) perspective on the phenomenon of OC and investigates how the specific business-level cultural mechanisms of family firms can transform the intimate connection between family and business into high levels of EO. To provide a deeper understanding of the forces that nurture EO in family firms, the study finds a way to bridge the gap between family-level characteristics and firm-level EO by integrating family commitment culture, long-term orientation, and stewardship climate into a multi-layer culture framework. The research model that derives from this perspective proposes a two-step mediation process, intending to explain how family commitment culture, as a family-level value orientation, is transformed into high levels of EO through OC mechanisms. The model was tested by analyzing data of 208 mature German family firms using covariance-based structural equation modelling (SEM). Consistent with the proposed multi-layer structure, the SEM model’s results support the hypothesis that, when high levels of EO are desired, family firms ought to focus on what type of cultural mechanisms are triggered at the business level through a family commitment culture.
Ageing and productivity
(2013) Bloom, David E.; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso
Airbus - ein gelungenes Beispiel für beschäftigungsorientierte Industriepolitik?
(2000) Hepperle, Guntram R. M.
Spätestens seit dem offiziellen Verkaufsstart des A3XX am 23.6.2000 ist "der Airbus" wieder in aller Munde. Am selben Tag wurde die Überführung des Konsortiums in eine eigenständige Aktiengesellschaft nach französischem Recht bekanntgegeben. Zusammen mit der Fusion drei der vier Airbus-Mutter-Unternehmen (Aerospatiale Matra,Casa und DASA) zum neuen europäischen Luft- und Raumfahrtunternehmen EADS und dem Börsengang am 1O.7.2llllll ist eine Entwicklung zum vorläufigen Abschluß gekommen, die in den 60er Jahren begann. Ziel war es damals gewesen, den Rückstand Europas gegenüber den USA im zivilen Großflugzeugbau aufzuholen. Es sollte die vermutete technologische Lücke geschlossen werden. Die Luftfahrtindustrie wurde als strategische Zukunftsbranche betrachtet: zum einen wegen der militärischen Relevanz, zum anderen wegen dem Rückstand gegenüber den USA. Nicht zuletzt erhoffte man sich die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen in einem zukunftsorientierten Bereich, ein Anliegen, das seit den 80er und 90er Jahren des vergangeneu Jahrhunderts auf Grund der verschärften Arbeitsmarktprobleme in Europa an Bedeutung hinzugewonnen hat. Aus diesen Grunden wurden erhebliche öffentliche Mittel in die Unterstützung der Entwicklung neuer Flugzeuge investiert. Das Airbus-Projekt wurde zu einem der größten Subventionsempfänger in Europa. Aus theoretischer Sicht wurde der Airbus zu einem klassischen Fall vertikaler (das heißt, sektoraler, auf einzelne Branchen bezogener) Industriepolitik, zu deren Rechtfertigung Elemente der Theorie der Strategischen Handelspolitik herangezogen wurden. Er eignet sich deshalb besonders gut für eine an industriepolitischen Fragestellungen interessierten Untersuchung. Aus dem Gesagten ergibt sich die Vergebensweise der vorliegenden Untersuchung. Im ersten Schritt ist die historische Entwicklung des Airbus nachzuzeichnen. Im zweiten Schritt wird die Praxis der theoretischen Überprüfung unterzogen: Durch welche Charakteristika ist die Produktion ziviler Großraumflugzeuge gekennzeichnet? Welche staatlichen Handlungsoptionen lassen sich daraus vor dem Hintergrund der Theorie der strategischen Handelspolitik ableiten? Welche Ergebnisse empirischer Studien liegen vor Danach sind die Beschäftigungswirkungen zu analysieren. Im letzten Abschnitt werden die Ergebnisse zusammengefasst.
Am Puls des Wandels - Veränderungskommunikation messen und steuern : Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Controllingansatzes für Veränderungskommunikation.
(2014) Heyder, Daniela; Schweiger, Wolfgang
The objective of the dissertation lies in the development and empirical application of a controlling approach particularly for change communication. For the success of a company continuous change is essential. As fast as the environment changed through e.g. increasing competition, shift in values or innovative technologies, the strategies, structures and processes in enterprises have to change as well as the employees, their mindset and behaviors, in order to secure continuance and growth. For the success of organizational change a special form of internal corporate communication is of central importance – change communication. It can create attention, knowledge and acceptance for the change with the employees concerned by the change and activates a mindset and behavior modification. The journalistically coined role of internal communication changes itself from the passive observer and correspondent of enterprise developments to the master clock and active designer of change processes. An interdisciplinary connection of internal corporate communication with organizational development approaches and implementation instruments of change management is demanded in times of change. So there are characteristics of the goals, strategies, contents, roles and instruments of change communication, which distinguish change communication as a special form of internal corporate communication. In continuous corporate change and with the essential meaning of communication for successful changes the need grew to measure and to steer the performance and impact of change communication systematically with success-critical indicators. This need is encouraged by the increasing attention of the communication science and management for the evaluation of corporate communication. International communication scientists and managers deal with the pressure to justify for their efficiency, effectiveness and budgets as well as with questions for planning and optimizing the success of Public Relations, market and employee communication. As an answer communication experts and controllers together with scientists developed the communication controlling. Contrary to Public relations, marketing communication or internal communication there is so far no scientific or practical approach for controlling change communication, that integrates the characteristics of change communication as a special form of internal communication conceptually or methodically. The development and empirical application of a controlling approach for change communication makes a contribution to lock the shown research gap and to the current discussion in communication controlling. First the characteristics and specific objectives of change communication are illustrated on the basis of a literature analysis. The dissertation regards the phenomenon of organizational change and the special role of communication during change processes. Their goals and tasks, strategies, contents, roles and instruments supply success-critical and steering-related factors of change communication and thus first elements for a controlling system. As a further basis for the specific measurement approach of change communication selected existing controlling approaches of corporate communication as well as change management are outlined and reviewed regarding transferable elements on a change communication controlling system. Beside a controlling tool for internal communication as well as an approach of marketing communication, the PR evaluation plays a major role in this reflection. Additionally evaluation concepts and measurement instruments of the change management deliver valuable implications. Based on this reflection the work defines measuring constructs, indicators and inquiry methods for the controlling of change communication. They are structured in a theoretical framework and an action-oriented measurement system. With the developed controlling system change communication can be evaluated and steered accompanying. The progress of the change is made visible and a rolling wave planning for a continuous optimization of the change process is made possible. The practical applicability of the innovative controlling approach for change communication is tested empirically at a case study. According to the specific goals, strategies, contents, target audiences and instruments of the corporate change initiative „CustomerFirst“ the developed controlling system is modified and applied on two measurement times. From the results of the measurement concrete recommendations for action are derived for steering the change initiative CustomerFirst. The steering mechanisms prove an optimizing effect on the change progress. The development and empirical application of the controlling approach for change communication in the context of a case study make a contribution to the current discussion in communication and change controlling, which look for best practice examples to enhance the discipline.
Ambidextrie in Netzwerken komplexer Produkte : Exploration und Exploitation in der Luftfahrtindustrie
(2016) Guffarth, Daniel; Pyka, Andreas
Since over 100 years, no comparable product exists that is so strongly related with engineering skills, pioneering spirit and the complex combination of materials, technique and knowledge, while being a prototypical example for high development and production cost at the same time. During the last century, industry changed dramatically through evolutionary and revolutionary technical and structural changes with government intervention playing a key role for industrial evolution. Today’s aircraft industry is in a growth phase which is determined by ramping up production scales which leads, in combination with the potentially new competitors from Asia and uprising regional aircraft manufacturers, to a situation in which the duopolists Airbus and Boeing are forced to shape their supply chains more efficient and effective. At the same time continuous technological novelties in subsystems and the high R&D-intensity are further recent challenges. With this dissertation a new industry evolution framework is developed which is coping with the complex products industries requirements by considering demand, state intervention and technological mechanisms. In complex product systems different subsystems of the artefact aircraft are in different stages of the technological life cycle at the same time. This is the reason why the classical implications between technology, product, and industry life cycle stages do not hold for complex products industries. I.e. solely focusing on the manufacturer level of an industry is not sufficient. Therefore in this dissertation, industry is defined as network. The design of this network as exploration or exploitation network focusing on product or process and/or both depends on time and manner. As permanently changing requirements are characteristic for complex products, organizations have to be able to be ambidextrous, i.e. to balance exploration and exploitation which is a decisive success factor in organizational long term survival. This requirement is analyzed on three levels within the R&D network of the European aircraft industry: knowledge development, structural and network topology, as well as on regional development. Key findings are the extension of ambidexterity in the network as well as in the supply chain over time. Therefore a change from cyclical to permanent ambidexterity is directed towards the suppliers. Additionally exploration is crowded out from the core of the network as routines and fossilized structure are established over time by repeatedly cooperating with other core actors. Therefore core actors use network peripheries as a vehicle to realize explorative projects and being permanently ambidextrous. As a consequence success factors for the sustainability of the European aircraft industry are the orchestration of network stability and network heterogeneity as well as the maintenance of the SME structure and interindustry linkages for usage of explorative learning.
An empirical analysis of residual value risk in automotive lease contracts
(2011) Nau, Katharina; Burghof, Hans-Peter
The work at hand concentrates on the risk structure of lease contracts and therefore aims to give insights and support to the risk management of lease firms. The focus lies on a special and highly important type of risk in such contracts named residual value risk describing the risk arising from deviations of the actual residual value at maturity stage of the contract from the estimated one fixed in the contract at its completion. My analysis deals with automobile leases covering the major share of this market. The main objective of this work is the analysis of two research question: 1.) What determines residual values? 2.) How can residual values be predicted? On the one hand, a minimum level of predictability is necessary to manage residual value risk. That is why an identification of determinants of residual values is extremely important. The possibility to link fluctuations in residual values to changes in explanatory variables allows one to trace the pattern of residual values based on the pattern of the identified risk factors. On the other hand, residual values are not known in advance but needed at the completion of the lease contract. This is why residual values have to be predicted. These questions are assessed by an empirical analysis using the ARIMAX regression methodology. The analysis uses a sample covering monthly residual values of 17 cars in the German automobile market for the observation period from June 1992 to December 2008. The determinants of the residual values describe the market environment of used cars. Those can be classified into three man categories. The first one illustrates the overall economic situation, the second one describes the situation in the new and used car market and the third one specifies a certain car model in more detail. The empirical results give evidence that the chosen factors influence the residual values of cars. Moreover, those determinants lead to very accurate predicted residual values showing a high forecast ability. Furthermore, the empirical results and considerations are used to conduct a theoretical analysis in order to derive implications for the residual value risk management. The valuation model of McConnell and Schallheim (1983) is used on the one hand to quantify the impact of fluctuations in the underlying factors on the lease rate and, on the other hand, to analyse the effects of misspecifications in an underlying market factor on the lease rate and the value of the lease contract. These theoretical considerations give insights and support to improve the risk management of residual values in lease contracts.
An equilibrium model of 'global imbalances' revisited
(2011) Körner, Finn Marten
?Global imbalances? are almost universally regarded as a disequilibrium phenomenon. Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas (2008) challenge this notion with their dynamic general equilibrium model of global imbalances. The authors conclude that current account deficit nations need not worry about long-lasting deficits as long as the model is in equilibrium. The joint model in this paper combines the two model extensions for exchange rates and FDI which are disjunct in the original model. An analytical solution to the new joint model is neither as straightforward as for the separate models nor can previous results from calibrated simulation be confirmed without restriction. The model is highly dependent on parameter assumptions: A variation of calibrated parameters highlights the prime impact of investment costs previously assumed away. Sustainable equilibrium paths for global imbalances are much narrower in updated simulations than previously predicted. Policy recommendations on the sustainability of international debt holdings therefore need to be a lot more cautious.
Anreizsysteme für Investitionen während der Regulierungsperiode
(2012) Romer, Andrea
Durch die von der Bundesregierung beschlossene Energiewende entsteht in den nächsten Jahren ein erheblicher Um- und Ausbaubedarf der Energienetze. Der gegenwärtige Regulierungsrahmen, mit dem Ziel eines effizienteren Betriebs bestehender Netze, setzt dabei keine Anreize für steigende Investitionen. Diese sind jedoch für die Umsetzung der Energiewende unabdingbar. Der folgende Beitrag analysiert die aktuell vorhandenen Instrumente zur Förderung der Investitionstätigkeit gemäß der Anreizregulierungsverordnung (Erweiterungsfaktor, Pauschalierter Investitionszuschlag und Investitionsbudget) und stellt weitere optionale Konzepte zur Verbesserung der Investitionsbedingungen während der Regulierungsperiode vor.
Applied policy research through the lens of new quantitative trade models
(2021) Walter, Timo; Jung, Benjamin
This cumulative dissertation consists of four essays focusing on the applied policy research in international trade. I conduct policy research on current and relevant trade subjects using state-of-the-art quantitative trade models. In the first two essays I analyze the impact of potential trade policies before they are implemented (ex-ante), while in the two later essays I examine policy issues and their effects after they were implemented (ex-post). The first essay is dedicated to the exploration of the trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Japan. Examining the effects of this bilateral FTA is of economic relevance as Japan is the largest trading partner for the United States without an established FTA. Based on the new quantitative trade model of Caliendo and Parro (2015) I consider various trade policy scenarios of such a potential FTA. In my counterfactual analysis I focus on the decrease of tariffs as well as on the reduction of different levels of non-tariff barriers. My findings indicate that the largest trade effects are driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers. Furthermore, I compare the impact of a bilateral “Deep FTA” with the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The results show that the United States would prefer joining TPP; Japan would benefit the most of a “Deep FTA”. The second essay of my dissertation project concentrates on the abolition of import tariffs in the automotive sector between the EU and the United States. To study the potential policy implications of the so-called “Zero Tariff Solution”, this essay applies the Caliendo and Parro (2015) framework and the empirical approach of the first essay. Hereby, several possible trade policy scenarios are analyzed. The key result clearly shows that the highest welfare gains would be achieved by the “grand solution” where the EU and the United States reduce the automotive tariffs for all WTO countries. At the heart of the third essay lies the question about the underlying reasons for the steady decline of unemployment in Germany since the peak in 2005. In particular, I dissect the employment effect of the “rise of the East” (rise in trade between Germany and Eastern Europe) and that of the fourth stage of the German labor market reform (“Hartz IV"). By extending the Caliendo et al. (2019) dynamic trade model I can show that the “Hartz IV" reform decreases the short-term unemployment by 0.4 percent. I examine the productivity growth of Germany and Eastern Europe as potential drivers for the increased trade. I discover that the German productivity growth leads to a decrease in short-term unemployment, whereas the productivity growth in Eastern Europe enhances the German short-term unemployment slightly. Thus, the overall effect of the “rise of the East” driven by the productivity growth of Germany and Eastern Europe contributed to a slight decrease in German short-term unemployment. The fourth essay investigates social welfare in Germany while taking income inequality into account. The essay consists of two parts: In the first part (closed economy setting) we study the welfare effects of the German “Tax-Reform 2000”, the largest tax reform of the last decades. In the second part (open economy setting) we concentrate on the social welfare effects of the trade liberalization in Germany between 1995 and 2014. We apply the Antràs et al. (2017) approach which considers income inequality when focusing on social welfare. The results demonstrate that the “Tax-Reform 2000” contribute to a minor average annual social welfare growth. However, this additional social welfare growth strongly varies with the social planer’s inequality aversion. Additionally, we identify the optimal tax-progressivity for each year of the period. Furthermore, when studying the trade liberalization, we find support that a counterfactual move of the German economy of the year 2014 to the trade openness of 1995 would severely reduce the social welfare.
Arbeitslosigkeit und Lohnspreizung : empirische Befunde zur Arbeitsmarktsituation gering Qualifizierter in Deutschland
(2007) Rukwid, Ralf
In den Industriestaaten stehen die weniger qualifizierten Arbeitskräfte derzeit unter einem erheblichen Anpassungsdruck. Die Nachfragestruktur auf dem Arbeitsmarkt hat sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten zuungunsten der formal Ungelernten verschoben, wobei als die Hauptursachen dieser Entwicklung die Globalisierung sowie ein qualifikationsverzerrter technischer Fortschritt gelten. Ziel dieses Diskussionspapiers ist eine detaillierte Analyse der Arbeitsmarktsituation gering Qualifizierter in Deutschland. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Beschäftigungschancen für Erwerbspersonen ohne abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung seit Mitte der 1970er Jahre systematisch und gegenüber den höher Qualifizierten überproportional verschlechtert haben. Dabei übertrifft die aktuelle gruppenspezifische Arbeitslosenquote der Ungelernten in Deutschland diejenige fast aller anderen OECD-Staaten. Dies wird häufig als Beleg für eine im Ländervergleich außerordentliche Problemlage gewertet und mit inflexiblen Lohnstrukturen in direkten Zusammenhang gebracht. Dieser Beitrag soll mit Hilfe einer empirischen Analyse von deutschen, amerikanischen und britischen Lohndaten auf Basis des Cross National Equivalent File (CNEF) Aufschlüsse über den tatsächlichen Grad der Flexibilität der deutschen Lohnstruktur geben. Hierbei werden landesspezifische Entwicklungstendenzen bei der Lohnverteilung beschrieben und der jeweilige Umfang an Lohnspreizung geschätzt. Zudem wird mittels Berechnung von Subgruppendisparitäten und der Durchführung von Dekompositionsverfahren der Zusammenhang zwischen Lohnungleichheit und formaler Qualifikation untersucht. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Analyseergebnisse sowie alternativer Studien erfolgt schließlich eine Einordnung der verschiedenen Politikansätze zur Verbesserung der Beschäftigungssituation gering Qualifizierter. Im Mittelpunkt der wirtschaftspolitischen Diskussion in Deutschland stehen neben Qualifizierungsstrategien vor allem Vorschläge einer stärkeren Lohndifferenzierung speziell im unteren Einkommensbereich. Eine simple monokausale Beziehung zwischen Lohnspreizung und der Intensität der Beschäftigungsprobleme gering qualifizierter Arbeitskräfte lässt sich anhand der in diesem Beitrag präsentierten empirischen Befunde allerdings nicht nachweisen.
Die Arbeitsmarktsituation formal Geringqualifizierter in Deutschland : Folgen, Ursachen und Politikimplikationen einer veränderten Nachfrage nach einfacher Arbeit
(2015) Rukwid, Ralf; Hagemann, Harald
This dissertation provides an elaborate discussion of the labour market situation of low-skilled workers in Germany. It starts with a precise description of the employment and wage effects for unskilled labour in the context of a skill-specific structural change and the tendency towards a knowledge-based economy. The analysis focuses on the current job and income opportunities of low-skilled workers as well as the historical developments. This is followed by an overview of the theoretical determinants of the specific labour market problems of unskilled workers and the main explanations for a long-term demand shift away from low-skilled labour (trade vs. technology). Finally, different political approaches for an improvement of the job prospects of less-qualified persons in Germany are presented and evaluated. The focus here is on one hand on various strategies for enhancing flexibility of the German wage structure and on the other hand on a further expansion and improvement of the system of education and vocational training.
Arbeitswelt: Digital – Belastung: Real? : Der erlebte Wandel der Arbeitswelt innerhalb der IT-Branche aus Sicht der Arbeitnehmer
(2017) Walz, Fabienne; Wagner, Lea; Adelhelm, Ann-Sophie; Bathelt, Melanie; Bathelt, Mirjam; Bürkin, Bettina; Klein, Sascha; Straub, Sabrina

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